Week 12 Preview: Notre Dame at Stanford

The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame (8-3, 25^th ranked) will wrap up their regular season with a trip to Palo Alto, California to take on the Stanford Cardinal (9-2, 8^th ranked) later tonight. The Irish will be looking to pick up their ninth win of the season, and their fifth victory against teams that are currently ranked in the Top 25. Stanford is hoping to finish their season strong prior to their date with the Arizona State Sun Devils next week for the PAC 12 championship.

This matchup has the potential to be a very exciting and competitive game. A few weeks ago I would have picked the Cardinal to win by three touchdowns, but I think it will be closer than that. Notre Dame is coming off of arguably their best played game of the season, and Stanford looked a lot less dominant in their loss to USC a couple weeks ago. In addition, I believe that these two programs are similar in their style of play. Ideally, both teams would like to play a more physical brand of football and rely on their running game and defensives to win games. To this point, Stanford has proved to better than Notre Dame in those areas this season, but I think the Irish still matchup fairly well against the Cardinal.

Offensively, Notre Dame would love to be able to run the ball like they did last week versus BYU, but I don’t see that happening. Stanford owns the nation’s third best rushing defense by allowing a meager 89.5 yards per game. If Notre Dame is going to have any success running the ball, they are going to need to break multiple 20-plus yard runs. I don’t think the Irish will be able to line up and gain four to five yards a carry. Stanford will likely be able to shut down the Irish rushing attack more times than not, so the Irish backs need to make the most of their opportunities. Although Stanford’s rushing defense is elite, their passing defense is a weak spot. The Cardinal secondary has struggled to defend the pass all season by allowing 259 yards per game, good for 101th in the country. Given that, I expect Brian Kelly to dial up plenty of longer passing plays in hopes of getting several big plays against a stout defense. I know Irish fans hate when Kelly favors the pass over the run, but this time it may be necessary in order to have success offensively. Don’t get me wrong, Notre Dame still needs to try to establish the run, but don’t look for 47 rushing attempts again this week.

Defensively, Notre Dame knows that Stanford will try to run the ball and out-physical their opponent. The Cardinal are ranked 32^nd in rushing offense at 203.7 yards per game, but come in at just 93^rd in passing offense with 199.4 yards per game. The key for the Irish will be stopping the run. Notre Dame ranks 68^th in rushing defense by allowing 167.5 yards per game, but most of that damage has come against spread/triple option schemes. While quarterback Kevin Hogan has deceptive speed (258 rushing yards this season), Stanford’s running game is a traditional, power running attack which Notre Dame has had some success against this season. Probably the biggest reason to stopping the run is to force Stanford to throw the ball more often than they would like. As I mentioned, the Cardinal’s passing game has struggled at time this season, and surprisingly Notre Dame’s pass defense ranks 21^st in the country by allowing only 205.6 yards per game. If Stanford is going to have success through the air, it will likely come from play-action type passes. If Stanford can run the ball at ease versus Notre Dame’s defensive front, then the Irish secondary will be playing closer to the line to help out with the run. If this happens, Stanford will likely be able to get several big plays against the Irish secondary. On the receiving end of those throws will likely be Ty Montgomery. The junior receiver has had a great season by hauling in 50 passes for 822 yards and nine touchdowns. At 6’2’’ and 215 pounds, Montgomery will present a mismatch wherever he lines up on the field. Hopefully the Irish front seven will do a good enough job at bottling up the running game so Notre Dame can bracket Montgomery with an extra defender for certain situations. In the end, the key will be stopping the run. If Notre Dame can hold the Cardinal under 150 yards rushing, I think they will have a chance to win this game.

This game will be closer than most people think, but ultimately I think Stanford is just a little bit better in every facet of the game.

Prediction: Stanford 31, Notre Dame 23

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07