Week 8 Preview: Notre Dame vs. Navy

Notre Dame (6-1, 10^th ranked) will look to get back on track tomorrow night when they travel to Landover, Maryland to take on the Navy Midshipmen (4-4) at FedEx Field. After the tough loss at Florida State, the Fighting Irish have had plenty of time to move on and get ready for Navy following a bye week. This week, the Irish also learned where they stand initially in the new college football rankings by being slotted at number ten. Despite the lower than expected ranking, Notre Dame’s mission remains the same. If the Irish win their final five games, they should find themselves right in the thick of things at the end of the year. With many teams ranked inside the top 15 playing each other over the next month or so, the Irish have an opportunity to rise in the polls if they keep winning. Will the Midshipmen end Notre Dame’s playoff hopes, or will the Irish take care of business and keep the dream alive?

Notre Dame’s offense will have to be efficient because they don’t know how many times they will possess the ball with Navy’s ball control offense. Depending on how successful Navy’s rushing attack is, the Irish might only have 6-8 possession for the entire game, so scoring on every possession is ideal. The good news is that Navy’s defense isn’t particularly strong considering they have allowed 411.5 yards per game and 27.6 points per game, both ranking 75^th in the country. Furthermore, the Midshipmen are equally below average against the run and pass, checking in at 75^th (170.9 yards per game) and 73^rd (240.6 yards per game) respectively. Given that, it would be safe to assume the Irish should have no trouble moving the ball and scoring plenty of points. Of course, the main issue has been the turnovers committed by mainly Everett Golson, so ball security will be critical in game where every possession is valuable. Since Brian Kelly knows that they need to be efficient on offense, look for him to call plenty of high percentage passing plays. I expect the Irish to run the ball very well with Tarean Folston leading the way after two impressive weeks in a row, and we should see a ton of short and intermediate passing routes. Don’t get me wrong, Brian Kelly will take a few shots down the field, but Notre Dame doesn’t need a bunch of deep passes to win. If Golson can get the ball out of his hands quickly to his talented wide receivers, then they should be able to get a ton of yards after the catch with their speed and athleticism. Overall, it should be a comfortable day for the Irish on offense.

When Navy’s offense lines up against Notre Dame’s defense we all know what to expect. The Midshipmen run the triple option probably about 90 percent of the time, so it will be all about discipline and assignments for the Irish defense. The first read in the triple option is the fullback dive, so Notre Dame’s inside linebackers Jaylon Smith and Joe Schmidt will need to read the play immediately and tackle the fullback close to the line of scrimmage. If the option extends to either edge of the defense, containment and proper assignments is the key to stopping Navy. There isn’t a whole lot to break down with Navy’s offense, since they run the same play all game long, but the Irish still need to be aware of the pass when it does occur. Navy loves to run it until the secondary is cheating and selling out on the run, and then that’s when they will hit the defense over the top with a pass. The best way to stop Navy’s offense is to hold them on first and second down to little or no gain and force an obvious pass on third down. That will allow Notre Dame’s defense to make a play and create a key turnover which would kill Navy’s chance at staying in the game. Navy is not built to come from behind, so if Notre Dame can get a few stops early on, it’ll be a long day for Navy on offense.

Navy will have some success early offensively, but Notre Dame’s offense scores early and often which makes it too hard for the Midshipmen to keep up.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Navy 14

Twitter: @etichel07

Week 7 Recap: Florida State 31, Notre Dame 27

Notre Dame’s undefeated season came to an end on Saturday when Florida State prevailed in an instant classic, 31-27. The Fighting Irish played a tremendous game both offensively and defensively, giving the Seminoles everything they could handle for 60 minutes. Of course, the game ended with a little drama when an offensive pass interference penalty wiped out the likely game-winning touchdown for Notre Dame. Before I get into the recap, I have something to say about call.

I initially thought the call was on C.J. Prosise (#20), and that would have been atrocious considering the Florida State defensive back initiated the contact on Prosise and held him the entire time. Later, I learned that the call was actually on Will Fuller (#7) who was the outside receiver. Fuller did run into the Florida State defender, and I can see why the flag was thrown. However, the defensive back that was covering Fuller broke to the inside to stay with Fuller and Florida State’s secondary busted the coverage. There was no one in the vicinity of Corey Robinson (even with the contact made by Fuller), and thus the contact had no impact on the outcome of the play. By rule, it was the correct call. All I will say is that I wish the referee would have put the play into context and understand that the contact was meaningless to the play. Regardless of my opinion, the officials saw it the other way and they made the call. I won’t say that Notre Dame got screwed over, but I do think it was an unfortunate way for the game to end. The bottom line is that Notre Dame just could not make one last play to finish off the Seminoles. It was one the greatest college football games I have ever watched, but I just wish it ended in an Irish victory. Despite the loss, Notre Dame proved that they are one of the elite programs in the nation and showed that they can play with anyone in the country. If the Irish win out, I think the selection committee will have a hard time leaving Notre Dame out of the final four. The Irish may need some help from other teams, but the championship quest is not over. Hopefully, Notre Dame will get another crack at Florida State in the playoffs.

Brian Kelly put together one of the best offensive game plans I have ever seen since he came to Notre Dame. The play calling was nearly perfect throughout the game, allowing the Irish to gain 470 yards against the Seminoles. Everett Golson was sharp on the evening by completing 60 percent of his passes for 313 yards and three touchdowns. I thought he played with great poise and composure in a hostile environment by leading the Irish offense on several long drives. Golson was able to spread the ball around nicely with six receivers catching multiple passes, but his top targets were once again Corey Robinson and Will Fuller. Robinson caught eight passes for 99 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Fuller added eight receptions, 79 yards, and one touchdown. Perhaps the key to Notre Dame’s offensive success was the running game powered by the push that their offensive line was able to maintain against the Seminole front. Running back Tarean Folston was the beneficiary of the wide running lanes by ripping off 120 yards on 21 carries. Golson added 33 yards with a few scrambles, but Brian Kelly rode the hot-handed Folston all night long with Cam McDaniel and Greg Bryant each only carrying the ball once. As successful as the Irish were offensively, it wasn’t enough to pull out the road win. However, I believe this was arguably their best effort of the season and it should bode well for the remaining five games if they can repeat this performance.

Just like Brian Kelly did with the offense, defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder installed the best game plan possible to defeat Florida State. VanGorder did a great job designing schemes to disguise the blitz and give Jameis Winston a variety of different looks. Notre Dame’s defensive front seven was pressuring Winston all night long and they made it difficult for Florida State to move the ball. As good as the pass rush was, Notre Dame’s defensive success was fueled by a dominating performance to shut down the Florida State running game. The Irish held the Seminoles to just 1.9 yards per carry with 50 yards on 26 attempts. In fact, Notre Dame’s run defense was so stout that the Seminoles practically abandoned the running game and went with short, quick throws in the second half. While the Irish were still pressuring Winston, he was able to get the ball out quickly and expose Notre Dame’s depleted secondary.  That would end up being the difference in the game as Florida State was able to score just enough in the second half to defeat Notre Dame.

Overall, it was an outstanding game played on both sides of the ball for the Irish. I truly believe that Notre Dame outplayed Florida State (particularly in the trenches), so I am hoping that this does not eliminate the Irish from playoff contention. I think I can speak for many true college football fans that a rematch on New Year’s Day would be warranted if Notre Dame can win their final five games. We’ll see what happens; there is a ton of football still to be played.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Twitter: @etichel07

Week 7 Preview: Notre Dame vs. Florida State

College Football’s biggest game of the weekend and arguably the season will take place tomorrow night when the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame (6-0, 5^th ranked) head down to Tallahassee to take on the defending champion Florida State Seminoles (6-0, 2^nd ranked). This game serves as essentially a playoff game as both programs might not be able to withstand losing one game and still make the playoffs. While both teams are undefeated, I would argue that neither team has played their best football yet. Which team will put it all together for one night and make a statement with a big victory?

The Irish offense starts and ends with Everett Golson. While Golson has been tremendous through six games this season with 1,683 yards passing, 209 yards rushing, and 20 total touchdowns, he has also turned the ball over nine times in the last three games. Obviously, Notre Dame will not beat Florida State if Golson turns the ball over three times, so that is a big key to the game. However, I don’t think Golson will have to be flawless to pull out a victory because Florida State has had their own issues with turnovers as well with a margin of -1 that ranks 77^th in the country. That is important to note because while Golson has been careless with the ball at times, the last thing he needs to do is be conservative. If Notre Dame is going to win this game, Golson will have to be aggressive and take chances by trying to fit the ball in some tight windows and pick up some key yardage with his legs. Although Golson is the leader of this offense, he also has some help. Wide receiver Will Fuller has had a breakout season so far with 504 yards receiving and seven touchdowns on 35 catches. Fuller has emerged as both a deep threat and a guy that can make a play with the ball in his hands after a short pass, and I don’t think there is a defensive back in the country that can cover him one-on-one. As great as the Irish passing game has been, the rushing attack has been sluggish at times. Last week, Notre Dame had their best day on the ground since the opener versus Rice by rushing for 219 yards. Contrary to what people might think, Florida State’s run defense hasn’t been great this season. The Seminoles are ranked a mediocre 53^rd in country by allowing 144.8 yards per game, so look for Brian Kelly to try to run the ball early and often to control the clock and set up some play action passes for later in the game.

Notre Dame’s defense looked terrible at times last week, but they made enough plays to win the game. Simply put, the Irish can’t be as sloppy and confused as they were last week against this Florida State offense. The Seminoles are led by their Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Jameis Winston and wide receiver Rashad Greene. Winston has thrown for 1,605 yards and 11 touchdowns while completing an impressive 70 percent of his passes, but he has also thrown five interceptions in five games. Winston favorite target is the aforementioned Greene, who has 683 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 44 catches. Notre Dame will have to double cover Greene or bracket him on certain passing downs to force Winston to throw the ball to somebody else. The Seminoles also have a good rushing attack, but they will be without sophomore Mario Pender who has averaged 6.3 yards a carry. Therefore, Florida State will rely heavily on Karlos Williams and Dalvin Cook. Williams, a senior, is the more notable back that missed last week with injury, but he still has 353 yards and five touchdowns in five games. With Williams out last week, Cook had a breakout performance with 122 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. Those two backs will likely have their hands full against a Notre Dame rushing defense that ranks 18^th in the nation with 110.5 yards allowed per game. In my opinion, the Irish will win this game if they can pressure Winston without overload blitzing. Defensive Coordinator Brian VanGorder needs to show Winston numerous different looks by disguising where the blitz is coming from and changing coverage schemes. If Notre Dame can put pressure on Winston with just four or five rushers, then I think they will force him to make some mistakes and allow the Irish to make a big play on defense.

Before the season started, I had this game penciled as the only automatic loss on the schedule, but that’s changed a little bit. I do not think that Florida State is as good as they were last year, and I believe that Notre Dame is a little better than I thought they would be back in August. Having said that, I still think the Seminoles are slightly better than the Irish and will have an advantage playing at home. This game will be very close and it could come down to the final possession which would leave the door barely open for the loser to remain in playoff contention.

When I started doing these predictions I told myself I would be objective no matter what, so…Florida State wins, but I hope that I am wrong!

Prediction: Florida State 30, Notre Dame 27

Twitter: @etichel07

Week 6 Recap: Notre Dame 50, North Carolina 43

Notre Dame survived a major scare last Saturday when they narrowly defeated North Carolina, 50-43. The Tar Heels were aided by another three turnovers by Everett Golson that helped spot them a 14-0 lead. Despite the turnovers and overall sloppy play, the Irish were able to move the ball efficiently all afternoon and made enough plays on defense to win the game. Coming away with a win is always a good thing, but the Irish will have to be much better this Saturday when the take on the defending champion Florida State Seminoles.

As expected, Notre Dame had a ton of success offensively to the tune of 50 points and 519 yards of total offense. Everett Golson did commit three turnovers that led to three easy North Carolina touchdowns, but he also did a lot of great things. Golson threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns while adding another 71 yards on the ground. Golson continues to lead this Irish offense to one of the most explosive units I have ever seen at Notre Dame, but they can still be better if they limit the mistakes. I was hoping that either Tarean Folston or Greg Bryant would rip off a long run, but Folston definitely provided many big chunk plays that were desperately needed out of the running back position. Folston got the Irish offense started after trailing 14-0 by catching a screen pass and running for 37 yards. Overall, Folston was the best player for the Irish on offense and racked up 169 yards of total offense and three touchdowns.  In addition to Folston, wide receiver Will Fuller continued his strong season by adding two more touchdown receptions and 133 yards on seven catches. Notre Dame will need more big performances and a lot fewer turnovers going forward if they want to remain undefeated.

As bad as the defense struggled at times, they also were not helped out by the Irish offense. The three Golson turnovers directly led to 21 points due to one pick-six and two short fields, so the 43 points surrendered made it seem like the defense struggle the entire game. Notre Dame allowed a staggering 510 yards of total offense and they had plenty of difficulties with North Carolina’s up-tempo attack. The Irish had a hard time lining up defensively and were caught off guard by allowing many big plays. However, Notre Dame’s defense did step up and make some plays when it was needed the most.  When Notre Dame scored to make it 14-7, the defense forced a punt after the Tar Heels gained one first down and they had a three-and-out after the Irish tied the game 14-14. With those two stops, the Irish were able to score three unanswered touchdowns to give them a 21-14 lead and some momentum going forward. In addition to the key stops, Notre Dame’s defense came away with two huge turnovers that led to two Irish touchdowns, one of which coming right before halftime that set up a Folston 6-yd touchdown run to give Notre Dame a 28-20 lead. Then with Notre Dame leading 43-36 midway through the fourth quarter, Cole Luke intercepted an ill-advised pass that allowed the Irish to go on a 10-play, 81 yard touchdown drive to seal the victory. It certainly wasn’t the defense’s best effort, but it was enough to win the game.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Twitter: @etichel07

Week 6 Preview: Notre Dame vs. North Carolina

The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame (5-0, 6^th ranked) will look to continue their undefeated season when they host the North Carolina Tar Heels (2-3) tomorrow afternoon. When the season began this game looked like it would be one of the tougher matchups on the schedule, but North Carolina has struggled mightily on defense which has hampered their success. Despite that, the Tar Heels still possess a prolific offense and could challenge the Irish if they are looking ahead to next week’s tilt at Florida State.

The Irish faced the nation’s top defense last week, but they will now see one of the worst units in the country. North Carolina has allowed a staggering 42 points and 505.8 yards per game, so expect Notre Dame to have a ton of success. My only concern in this game would be if the Irish came out flat after last weeks’ emotional high from beating Stanford. To avoid any let down, I hope and believe that Brian Kelly will be very aggressive early on to try and score a quick touchdown or two in the first quarter. Considering that the Tar Heels are efficient on offense as well, Notre Dame will need to score early and often to keep North Carolina from staying in this game. I expect Everett Golson to have another great performance in the passing game against 121^st ranked passing defense, but it would be encouraging to see a turnover free afternoon from the quarterback. If everything goes as planned, the Irish should have a decent lead in the second half which will allow Notre Dame to work on their running game. We all know that Cam McDaniel is a reliable back, but the Irish need more explosiveness from their running backs. I’d love to see either Greg Bryant or Tarean Folston break a 50+ yard run at some point tomorrow to showcase that the Irish are capable of big plays out of their running game. Stanford dropped 8 defenders on many occasions last week because they were much more fearful of the pass than the rush. If Notre Dame wants to be at their best offensively, they need to be more balanced with their big play potential. If not, then Golson will continue to see extra defenders in his throwing lanes which will make it difficult to move the ball consistently.

While Stanford was unquestionably Notre Dame’s toughest opponent of the season, North Carolina will probably be the best offense the Irish have seen so far. The Tar Heels are averaging 36 points and 415.4 yards per contest, so Notre Dame’s 3^rd ranked scoring defense will certainly be tested. North Carolina owns the 89^th ranked rushing offense at 138.6 yards per game, so I don’t think they will be able to pound the ball against Notre Dame’s 10^th ranked rushing defense at 95.8 yards per game. In addition, it is likely that North Carolina will be playing from behind most of the afternoon, so expect the Tar Heels to rely heavily on their passing game which checks in at 35^th in the country with 276.8 yards per game. The Tar Heels are led by their quarterback Marquise Williams who has been outstanding this season with 1,083 yards passing, 243 yards rushing, and 11 total touchdowns. Williams is undoubtedly the Tar Heels’ best player on offense and containing him will be the key for Notre Dame’s defense. Considering how mobile Williams can be, I would expect defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder to be less aggressive in his play calling then he was last week. While the heavy blitz packages may disrupt any college quarterback, it could also free up a ton of running room for the quarterback if he can make the first guy miss. In any event, I’m sure Jaylon Smith will be asked to shadow Williams on some plays and he should be able to run him down in most instances. Notre Dame has yet to allow more than 17 points in a game this season, but they’ll have to be at their best to keep that streak going.

After an emotional victory last week against Stanford, the Irish could come out sluggish, but Notre Dame’s offense will be way too much for North Carolina to handle.

Prediction: Notre Dame 48, North Carolina 24

Twitter: @etichel07

Week 5 Recap: Notre Dame 17, Stanford 14

Notre Dame got their first signature win of the season on Saturday when the Fighting Irish prevailed over Stanford in an instant classic. After the Cardinal scored a touchdown with just over three minutes remaining to give Stanford a 14-10 lead, Everett Golson led the Irish on a game-winning 65-yard touchdown drive. On fourth-and-11, Golson found Ben Koyack in the corner of the end zone for a 23-yard touchdown with 61 seconds left in give the Irish a 17-14 lead. Stanford tried to make a late push to set up a game-tying field goal attempt, but the game ended when defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder dialed up a safety blitz. The aggressive play call allowed Elijah Shumate to get to Kevin Hogan untouched, forcing Hogan to throw the ball away as he was falling to the ground. With no receiver in sight and Hogan still in the pocket, intentional grounding was called, thus ending the game with a 10-second run off since Stanford was out of timeouts. In the end, this rivalry lived up to the hype and the Irish came away with a thrilling victory to improve to 5-0.

Based on the score it would look like Notre Dame struggled to move the ball on offense, but that wasn’t the case. While the Irish were certainly not at their best offensively, they did accumulate 370 yards of total offense versus the nation’s top defense, but they also left a lot of points off the board by botching two field goal attempts and committing a turnover inside the red zone. Ultimately, the Irish were able to overcome those errors thanks to several big chunk plays throughout the afternoon. The Irish did gain 129 yards rushing on 32 carries, but a majority of those yards came on a 33-yard draw by Everett Golson and 26-yard run by C.J. Prosise. Without those two plays, Notre Dame had just 70 yards rushing on 30 carries. Despite averaging only 2.33 yards per carry on those 30 attempts, Brian Kelly stayed committed to the run game to set up the passing game and help control the tempo of the game. Golson was not his sharpest by completing 20 of 43 passes for 241 yards, but he connected for several big passes (five completions of 15+ yards) and accounted for both touchdowns. Golson’s completion percentage took a hit, but that was mainly due to him making wise decisions and throwing the ball away on multiple occasions. Golson did force a few throws, one of which resulted in a costly interception inside the red zone, but overall he played smart. Despite the interception and also losing the ball on a fumble in the first quarter that set up Stanford’s first score, Golson responded in a big way and made some huge plays that fueled the Irish to victory.

As well as Stanford’s defense played, Notre Dame’s defense was even better. In fact, I would consider their performance as a dominant effort by holding the Cardinal to 205 yards of offense. The Irish simply shutdown the Cardinal rushing attack by holding them to 47 yards on 32 carries. Any time that you can hold your opponent to 1.5 yards per carry, you will force your opponent in third-and-long situations all game long. Because of that, Kevin Hogan connected on 50 percent of his passes for a low total of 158 yards passing. Coming into the game, I thought Ty Montgomery could give the Irish fits, but Notre Dame’s defense did an outstanding job by limiting the talented wide receiver to 26 yards on nine touches. Notre Dame got many key contributions from several players, but two players stood out in particular. Jaylon Smith played like a man possessed by racking up 14 tackles, a sack, and 2.5 tackles for loss. The other was cornerback Cole Luke who intercepted two passes, had one sack, four tackles, and one pass breakup. Honestly, I was concerned about the defense coming into the season due to lack of experience. However, I think it is safe to say that this unit is very fast, very talented, and very aggressive. Defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder has been a great addition to the coaching staff and has this unit playing as well as it ever has under Brian Kelly.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Twitter: @etichel07

Week 5 Preview: Notre Dame vs. Stanford

With no disrespect to the first four opponents, Notre Dame (4-0, 9^th ranked) will get their toughest test of the young season when Stanford (3-1, 14^th ranked) visits South Bend tomorrow afternoon. This game marks the first of four major hurdles that stand in the way of Notre Dame’s path to the playoffs. Make no mistake about it, the Irish must play a much cleaner game if they want to get past the Cardinal in what should be a close contest.

Notre Dame’s biggest advantage over Stanford is the explosive nature of their offense led by Everett Golson. Minus the turnovers last weekend, Golson has been spectacular this season, but he will face the nation’s top passing defense, total defense, and scoring defense. Stanford is allowing just 74 passing yards per game, 198 total yards per game, and 6.5 points per game. As good as the Cardinal has been defensively, I think it is safe to say that the Irish offense will far exceed those averages. It is no secret that Brian Kelly wants to get the running game going, but I don’t think Notre Dame can pound the ball consistently against Stanford’s stout defense. If Notre Dame is going to win this game, they will have to execute the screen passes like they did last week, then hit Stanford’s secondary hard with the vertical passing game. Brian Kelly might be conservative early on to settle his offense in, but I expect to see many deep passes to Will Fuller, Corey Robinson, and company. I think Notre Dame has a distinct advantage with the speed, height, and athleticism that their receiving corps possesses and they need to try to prove that often. If Notre Dame wins this game, it will be because they connected on several passes of 20 yards or more.

Stanford’s defense deserves all the hype they have received, but don’t overlook Notre Dame’s defensive unit either. The Irish rank 4^th in scoring defense at 11.5 points per game, and have excelled by allowing their opponents to reach the red zone only nine times in four games. Furthermore, the Irish have done a good job keeping their opponents off the board by allowing just six scores in those nine occasions. On the other hand, Stanford has had problems of their own when they have entered into the red zone. The Cardinal has only scored on 12 of their 19 red zone appearances that ranks them 118^th in the country. A big key to this game will be whether or not Stanford can improve on that mark and get the ball in the end zone. When Stanford does get into the red zone, Notre Dame’s biggest concern will be wide receiver Ty Montgomery. Montgomery caught ten touchdowns last season and already has three scores this season. Everyone knows that Stanford loves to run the ball, but Montgomery is probably their best player on offense, so the Irish need to double cover him in certain situations. One thing to watch will be how aggressive defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder is with his game plan. Notre Dame has faced several mobile quarterbacks this season which has hampered their ability to blitz as much as they would like. While Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan is an underrated athlete and can pick up some yards with his legs, look for VanGorder to dial up plenty of blitzes to keep Hogan off balance and force some bad throws. Turnovers and big plays will be decisive in any close game, so the Irish need to pressure Hogan to try to get an edge in those areas.

This game will be a dog fight like always, but the difference between Notre Dame’s offense and Stanford’s offense is greater than the two defensive units. Notre Dame will make enough big plays to pull off a close win.

Prediction: Notre Dame 20, Stanford 16

Twitter: @etichel07