Sale Returns; Lindstrom Out

Chris Sale returned to the mound last night in dominating fashion. The left-hander allowed just one runner to reach base on a single, and struck out 10 batters in his six innings of work. Sale was on a pitch count after having thrown 68 pitches in his rehab start last week, so he only threw 86 pitches while cruising through six frames. Sale looked like he was in midseason form after being out for five weeks, but the White Sox still have to be cautious. The biggest thing is to make sure Sale can stay on the mound for the rest of the season and beyond, so the White Sox will monitor how his arm and body responds after last night’s outing. As long as everything checks out fine, Sale will be toeing the rubber in five days where he will likely be limited to around 100 pitches.

State of the Rotation

Chris Sale’s return obviously helps out a beleaguered rotation that has struggled to find consistency. With Sale and Jose Quintana the White Sox have two front-end of the rotation guys, but that’s where the rest of the rotation gets troublesome. John Danks had a nice start to the season, but he was allowing too many base runners and getting out of a lot of jams to keep his ERA down. However, over the last few starts Danks has been unable to pitch over the walks, and he has been hit hard when failing behind in the count. We’ll see if Danks can correct the wildness because it is surprising considering that his walk rate is the worst of his career at 4.44 walks per nine innings. Danks’ career rate is 2.91 BB/9 and he was superb last season with a 1.76 BB/9 mark after having not pitched for a year following shoulder surgery. In my opinion, Danks is the key to this rotation. If he can be consistently above-average and solidify the third spot on the staff, then the remaining two starters will have a lot less pressure on them to succeed. With Sale’s return, Scott Carroll was sent to the bullpen, leaving Hector Noesi and Andre Rienzo as the team’s fourth and fifth starters. Ultimately, both starters are pitching for one spot because Erik Johnson will likely rejoin the rotation at some point this season. As it stands now, I’d lean slightly in favor of Rienzo as I feel he has been more consistent and he has looked better recently with an increased use of his tight slider/cutter.

Closing Situation

Closer Matt Lindstrom left Monday night’s game after coming off the mound awkwardly and injuring his left ankle.  An MRI revealed a tear in the sheath of his left ankle, and Lindstrom is scheduled to have surgery today to repair the injury. Lindstrom is expected to be out for at least three months, and his loss leaves the White Sox’ closing situation uncertain moving forward. Ronald Belisario received the first shot at closer simply because he has been the most effective reliever of late, but he has allowed five base runners and two runs while recording his first two saves. As good as Belisario has been, he is merely a short-term solution for the White Sox. With Lindstrom essentially out for the season, the White should and likely will look to find a long-term answer at closer. Daniel Webb has the arm and demeanor to close, but he has walked too many guys to be anointed closer right now. If Webb can string together some clean appearances, then he could ascend to the closer’s role in the coming weeks.  Other candidates would be Nate Jones (when he is healthy), Jake Petricka, and possibly Zach Putnam. We’ll see how this all shakes out, but expect the White Sox to eventually settle on a younger option.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Twitter: @etichel07

Abreu DL'd, Eaton Activated, Sale Close to Return

Prior to dropping the rubber match to the lowly Houston  Astros, the Chicago White Sox announced a pair of roster moves yesterday. Leadoff man Adam Eaton was reinstated from the 15-day disabled list after recovering from a hamstring issue, while slugger Jose Abreu was shelved due to posterior tibial tendinitis in his left ankle.

Adam Eaton went 1-for-4 in his return to the lineup, and he should provide the spark that has been noticeably missing since his has been out. Unfortunately, the White Sox offense will be hampered for at least the next two weeks while Abreu tries to heal his nagging left ankle.  Like the injuries to Eaton and Chris Sale, the White Sox are taking the right approach in being cautious with their future core. Abreu clearly has been bothered by this ankle problem for the past 10 days, so it’s wise to force him to sit and get healthy.

Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko will split first base and designated hitter duties while Abreu is out. The loss of the American League leader in home runs and runs batted in is never a good thing, but at least the White Sox have Konerko to fill in for a few weeks. Abreu is scheduled to undergo an MRI on his left ankle this afternoon to make sure that the injury isn’t more severe than the initial diagnosis showed.

With Abreu being placed on the disabled list, Marcus Semien and Leury Garcia once again dodged a demotion to the minors for another two weeks. Semien has seen his at-bats significantly diminish with the returns of Gordon Beckham and Conor Gillaspie, and I am starting to think that sending him down to get regular playing time is the best option when Abreu comes back.

Sale Close to Return

Chris Sale made a rehab start on Friday for Triple-A Charlotte and the results were encouraging. Sale breezed through his four innings of work, striking out 11 hitters on 68 pitches. Sale will rejoin the White Sox in Kansas City to meet with the coaching staff and team doctors to decide on the next step. The White Sox have three options with Sale. One, Sale could make one more rehab start on Wednesday to build up his pitch count and return early next week. Two, Sale could start Wednesday in Kansas City with a pitch count limit of roughly 90 pitches. Three, Sale could throw a side session in Kansas City tomorrow or Wednesday, and then come off the disabled list this weekend against the New York Yankees. Regardless of what option the White Sox choose, Sale should be making a start in a White Sox uniform within the next week.  Sale’s return to the rotation will do the White Sox pitching staff wonders as they have struggled to find consistent starting pitching during Sale’s absence.  

Farm Report

While sifting through some of the stats for the White Sox affiliates, a few players that are critical to organization moving forward stood out the most.

Matt Davidson, Third Base, 23 years old

Of course, Matt Davidson was acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks for Addison Reed this winter. Davidson has been labeled as the third baseman of the future, but failed to crack the Opening Day roster with Conor Gillaspie ahead of him on the depth chart. Davidson was sent to Triple-A Charlotte and has really struggled so far this season with a .198 average, four home runs, and 13 RBI. However, Davidson has shown some life during the past ten days while hitting .294 with a homer and five RBI in 34 at-bats. The problem is that Davidson continues to strikeout at an alarming rate with fourteen strikeouts in the past ten days, and a whooping 57 whiffs in 131 at-bats. Although Davidson is starting to string together some hits, he’ll have to cut down his K-rate if he is ever going to have success at the major league level. While Davidson has certainly struggled, it is not time to panic, but I would be lying if I didn’t say that I was starting to worry a little bit.

Micah Johnson, Second Base, 23 years old

Micah Johnson made some noise this March after a great spring training where he hit .360 with three stolen bases, but he was ultimately sent to Double-A Birmingham to develop his skills. Johnson responded by hitting .329 in 146 at-bats with three homers and 16 RBI. Johnson’s hot start earned him a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte last week and he has batted .296 during his first six games. Johnson could very well be the White Sox second baseman of the future, but he might have a hard time cracking the major league level this season before the rosters expand on September 1^st. Either way, we will likely see Johnson at some point this season, and he could be in line to compete for a starting spot next spring.

Erik Johnson, Starting Pitcher, 24 years old

Erik Johnson earned a spot in the starting rotation after showing some promise during five starts last season and a solid spring training this year. Unfortunately, Johnson had a rough April and was ultimately sent down after struggling to find the strike zone. That lack of command (18:15 K:BB ratio) resulted in five inconsistent starts and a 6.46 ERA in 23.2 innings pitched.  Since being demoted, Johnson has made four starts and has shown some progress with a 3.38 ERA and a 19:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24 innings pitched. Johnson will have to string together some more solid starts to show that he can be consistent with his delivery, but he should be back with the White Sox this summer.

Courtney Hawkins, Outfielder, 20 years old

Courtney Hawkins immediately became one of the White Sox top prospects after being drafted with the 12^th overall pick in the 2012 Draft. Hawkins signed quickly and had a promising start to his professional career in 2012 with a .284 average, eight home runs, and 33 RBI in 59 games between two minor league levels. But, in 2013, Hawkins took a huge step back by hitting just .178 with 19 homers and 62 RBI in 383 at-bats. Hawkins also struck out 160 times and walked just 29 times, leading some people to no longer consider him a top-prospect. However, to the surprise of many, Hawkins has rebounded to have a solid first six weeks to the season with a .272 average, nine homers, and 34 RBI. Hawkins still has 41 strikeouts in 38 games, but that is a much better rate than 160 strikeouts in 103 games. Hawkins still has a long way to go, but at least he has put himself back into the discussion of being part of the White Sox future.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Twitter: @etichel07

White Sox Have Decisions to Make as they Hover Around .500

The Chicago White Sox travel to Oakland to face the Athletics after winning four out of seven games this past week. At 19-20, the White Sox keep hovering right around .500 and figure to remain there for the foreseeable future. Injuries have played a big factor in limiting the success of this team, but the White Sox are hoping to get two key players back shortly.

Leadoff man and center fielder Adam Eaton is set to begin a rehab stint at Triple-A Charlotte on Wednesday. If everything goes well, Eaton is scheduled to rejoin the White Sox this Sunday versus the Houston Astros. Eaton’s injury has hampered the White Sox roster over the past ten days while only having three outfielders. When Eaton returns, the White Sox have some decisions to make with regards to their roster.

The first decision is who gets sent down when Eaton comes back? Marcus Semien and Leury Garcia avoided demotion when Conor Gillaspie returned from the disabled list last week, but I’m not sure how much longer the White Sox can operate with only three outfielders. So, one of the two infielders will likely have to go. Semien is the better player, but Garcia’s versatility might be more valuable at this time. Semien needs to get at-bats, and I don’t know if starting only against left-handed starters will be enough action to warrant him staying in the big leagues.

If the White Sox still elect to only go with three outfielders, then either Moises Sierra or even Alejandro De Aza will be designated for assignment. Some White Sox fans might be surprised if De Aza was DFA’d, but the reality is that he is a terrible outfielder, an even worse base runner, and his .194 batting average shouldn’t be enough to save his job. In addition, manager Robin Ventura hinted that changes might be in store after yesterday’s lackluster performance, and De Aza is the only starting player I could think of being in jeopardy of losing his job. On the other hand, the White Sox just acquired Moises Sierra and they reportedly see a lot of potential in him. Sierra has eight hits in his first twenty-two at-bats, including a home run yesterday, so his early production could be enough to help him stick with the White Sox when Eaton comes back on Sunday.

Sale Coming Back?

For the first time since starting pitcher Chris Sale went on the disabled list, the White Sox have disclosed a detailed plan for the lefty’s return. Sale threw a simulated game on Saturday and will now make two rehab starts before hopefully returning at the end of the month against the New York Yankees. Since Sale has already been out longer than originally expected, it makes me wonder if the injury is more serious than reported. While that is certainly a possibility, I think the White Sox are just being cautious with their “Ace”. As much as the White Sox want Sale on the mound this season, they realize that it is more important to have Sale healthy and on the mound in 2015 and beyond. Given the state of the current starting rotation, I think I can speak for all White Sox fans that we are eagerly awaiting the return of one of the best pitchers in baseball. Hopefully, he’ll remain on the mound for the final four months of the season and provide the stability that is desperately needed to the pitching staff as a whole.

Cooling off?

Last week, I examined the hot starts of Alexei Ramirez, Dayan Viciedo, and Tyler Flowers and determined that all three players would start to regress in the coming weeks. One week later and all three players have seen their batting averages drop by at least .20 points. Ramirez saw his average fall from .356 to .333, Viciedo’s average dropped from .337 to .297, and Flowers’ average dipped from .354 to .324. I’ll be interested to see where all three of these players’ averages sit at the end of May, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they are all hitting under .300 by June.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Twitter: @etichel07

Can Ramirez, Viciedo, and Flowers Keep it Up?

Alexei Ramirez, Dayan Viciedo, and Tyler Flowers all have been fantastic through the first 30 games of the season, but can they keep it up? I seriously doubt that any of them will be batting around .350 much longer, but any .300 averages from that group would have been a reach before the season started.

Alexei Ramirez leads the American League with a .356 average and has four homers, 19 RBI, four steals, and 18 runs scored. If you do the math, that means Ramirez would be on-pace for a 20/20 season with about 100 runs and 100 RBI. Can he reach those numbers? Let’s start with the batting average. Ramirez is a career .280 hitter and will have a hard time keeping his average over .300 as the season progresses. Ramirez’s high average is due in large part to an inflated .365 batting average with balls in play (BABIP). With a career .297 BABIP, I would expect Ramirez’s average to decrease as his BABIP decreases during the season. Expect Ramirez’s average to be between .280 and .300 at the end of the year. While I don’t think the average is sustainable, I certainly believe that Ramirez can reach 20 home runs and 20 steals. Ramirez stole 30 bases last year and he shows no signs of slowing down. After only hitting a combined 15 home runs the last two seasons, 20 homers is definitely a stretch, but he’s done it before. Ramirez hit 21 homers in 2008 and 69 over his first four seasons, so I think it is doable. If not, he should finish the year with at least 15 home runs. Finally, both the RBI and runs scored totals likely won’t be approaching 100 at year’s end. With Ramirez’s batting average severely inflated, his RBI and runs scored pace will likely fall off when his average does as well. So, Alexei Ramirez won’t finish the season with a .356/100/20/100/20 stat line, but a .290/80/15/80/25 stat line is probably more realistic.

Dayan Viciedo has had a unique start to the season because White Sox fans have always seen Viciedo as a hitter with a mediocre average and good power. So far this season, Viciedo has been the complete opposite with just one home run, a .337 average, and a surprising .404 OBP. The low home run total is fluky to me, so it should rise with more at-bats and as the weather heats up. But, what about the batting average and on-base percentage? Viciedo owns a career batting average of .269 and a .314 on-base percentage. Like Ramirez, Viciedo’s high average is a result of an inflated BABIP of .390, and his average will fall once that BABIP normalizes to his career .312 clip. However, the biggest difference in Viciedo’s game is his improved patience at the dish. Viciedo has got on base via the walk eleven times and has only struck out fifteen times in 104 plate appearances. Those numbers equate to a 10.6% walk rate and a 14.4% strikeout rate, with both numbers being huge improvements over his career marks of 5.5% and 21.0% respectively. Since Viciedo has nearly doubled his walk rate and cut down on his strikeout rate by nearly one-third, that suggests he could be in store for a career year in batting average and on-base percentage. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Viciedo hit near .300 with a OBP around .340 if he can continue to walk more and cut down on his strikeouts. If he does that, the homers should also skyrocket to his 20-plus potential throughout the next five months.

Tyler Flowers’ hot start is the least likely one to continue out of the trio. Flower’s is hitting .354 and his BABIP is .560. Simply put, both of those numbers will start to plummet very soon. Flowers’ walk rate of 6.8% and strikeout rate of 35.2% are right in-line with his career percentages of 7.8% and 34.1% respectively. In other words, Flowers’ hot start is really fluky and is very unsustainable. While I don’t expect Flowers to hit .195 like he did last year, expecting anything over .250 is unrealistic. The one thing that Flowers does have going for him is that he has yet to hit for power and extra base hits by netting singles on 26 out of 29 hits. If he starts to drive the ball in the gaps and over the fence, then that should help neutralize his regression a little bit. Based on that, I think a .230 to .250 average with 15-plus home runs is a more reasonable expectation.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Twitter @etichel07

White Sox Drop Third Straight; Eaton to DL

Following last night’s 12-5 defeat against the Cleveland Indians, the Chicago White Sox have now lost their last three games to fall to a 14-16 record. The White Sox are currently in third place in the American League Central Division, four games behind the Detroit Tigers. For a team that was supposed to be in a rebuilding year, the White Sox have been competitive, but they are still far from being a playoff team. There are plenty of issues with this team (mainly pitching), so expecting them to more than a .500 team is unrealistic at this point. The good news is that newcomers like Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton have shown what they care capable of and youngsters like Marcus Semien and Daniel Webb have flashed their potential.

Injury Report

Adam Eaton strained his right hamstring while trying to beat out double play ball and left the game after the inning. With Eaton’s left knee also still slightly bothering him, the White Sox placed him on the 15-day disabled list this afternoon. Even if Eaton is ready to go in 4 or 5 days, it is wise to force him to sit for a couple weeks to prevent a more serious injury from occurring. As good as Eaton can be, the one knock on him is his health. Eaton has had trouble staying on the field during his brief career, and his hard-nosed playing style doesn’t help matters. But, you would hate to see a player like Eaton “tone-down” his approach to the game because that’s part of what makes him an effective player. Unfortunately, this is something you just have to deal with and hope that it doesn’t occur too often.

Chris Sale won’t come off the disabled list this weekend, but he will throw a bullpen session on Monday. If everything goes well, Sale should either go on a rehab assignment later next week or be activated for a start next weekend. Obviously, the White Sox are desperately awaiting his return.

Jeff Keppinger (Double-A) and Felipe Paulino (Triple-A) are both set to being rehab assignments. As for Keppinger, I’m not really sure where he would fit on the roster, but I don’t think the White Sox will have to make a decision any time soon. Keppinger is probably going to need a few weeks worth or at-bats before he is ready to be activated. Felipe Paulino will start tonight in Charlotte, and will likely need several starts to not only show that he is healthy, but that he can be effective as well.

Nate Jones was transferred to the 60-day disabled list this afternoon. He last pitched on April 4^th, so he likely will not be back until mid-June at the earliest. This is another unfortunately blow to Jones and the White Sox who expected the righty to close games this season. There is still a chance for that to happen in the second half of the year, but he’ll have a lot of work to do whenever he is fully healthy.

Bullpen Improves

Prior to last night’s contest, the White Sox bullpen has pitched quite well during the past two weeks.

“After they posted a 6.12 ERA in their first 18 games, White Sox relievers have a 1.79 mark over the past 11 contests. The 1.79 ERA over that span is the lowest in the American League and helped to drop the team’s season mark to 4.83.” (courtesy of Comcast SportsNet’s Dan Hayes). 

Of course, the bullpen starts to settle down now that the starting rotation is a major issue, but it is encouraging. Once the White Sox get Chris Sale back pitching every five days, the pitching staff should at least be closer to being league average.

Danks Gets Roughed Up Again

John Danks had a rough outing last night, highlighted by a 5-run first inning. The lefty finished the night with 5 innings pitched, 10 hits, 8 runs, 3 walks, and 3 strikeouts. As I stated last week, the final two numbers of Danks’ stat line are the most troubling. Danks has now walked 20 batters while recording just 21 strikeouts in 36 innings pitched. Pitchers are simply not going to be successful when they are walking guys at a high rate and not missing bats. Danks needs to correct this issue soon, and he will have a chance to do that during his next start when he faces a Chicago Cubs team that struggles to score runs.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Twitter @etichel07