The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame (8-3, 25th
ranked) will wrap up their regular season with a trip to Palo Alto, California
to take on the Stanford Cardinal (9-2, 8th ranked) later tonight.
The Irish will be looking to pick up their ninth win of the season, and their fifth
victory against teams that are currently ranked in the Top 25. Stanford is
hoping to finish their season strong prior to their date with the Arizona State
Sun Devils next week for the PAC 12 championship.
This matchup has the potential to be a very exciting and competitive
game. A few weeks ago I would have picked the Cardinal to win by three
touchdowns, but I think it will be closer than that. Notre Dame is coming off
of arguably their best played game of the season, and Stanford looked a lot
less dominant in their loss to USC a couple weeks ago. In addition, I believe
that these two programs are similar in their style of play. Ideally, both teams
would like to play a more physical brand of football and rely on their running
game and defensives to win games. To this point, Stanford has proved to better
than Notre Dame in those areas this season, but I think the Irish still matchup
fairly well against the Cardinal.
Offensively, Notre Dame would love to be able to run the
ball like they did last week versus BYU, but I don’t see that happening.
Stanford owns the nation’s third best rushing defense by allowing a meager 89.5
yards per game. If Notre Dame is going to have any success running the ball,
they are going to need to break multiple 20-plus yard runs. I don’t think the
Irish will be able to line up and gain four to five yards a carry. Stanford
will likely be able to shut down the Irish rushing attack more times than not,
so the Irish backs need to make the most of their opportunities. Although
Stanford’s rushing defense is elite, their passing defense is a weak spot. The
Cardinal secondary has struggled to defend the pass all season by allowing 259
yards per game, good for 101th in the country. Given that, I expect Brian Kelly
to dial up plenty of longer passing plays in hopes of getting several big plays
against a stout defense. I know Irish fans hate when Kelly favors the pass over
the run, but this time it may be necessary in order to have success
offensively. Don’t get me wrong, Notre Dame still needs to try to establish the
run, but don’t look for 47 rushing attempts again this week.
Defensively, Notre Dame knows that Stanford will try to run
the ball and out-physical their opponent. The Cardinal are ranked 32nd
in rushing offense at 203.7 yards per game, but come in at just 93rd
in passing offense with 199.4 yards per game. The key for the Irish will be
stopping the run. Notre Dame ranks 68th in rushing defense by
allowing 167.5 yards per game, but most of that damage has come against spread/triple
option schemes. While quarterback Kevin Hogan has deceptive speed (258 rushing
yards this season), Stanford’s running game is a traditional, power running
attack which Notre Dame has had some success against this season. Probably the
biggest reason to stopping the run is to force Stanford to throw the ball more
often than they would like. As I mentioned, the Cardinal’s passing game has
struggled at time this season, and surprisingly Notre Dame’s pass defense ranks
21st in the country by allowing only 205.6 yards per game. If
Stanford is going to have success through the air, it will likely come from
play-action type passes. If Stanford can run the ball at ease versus Notre Dame’s
defensive front, then the Irish secondary will be playing closer to the line to
help out with the run. If this happens, Stanford will likely be able to get
several big plays against the Irish secondary. On the receiving end of those
throws will likely be Ty Montgomery. The junior receiver has had a great season
by hauling in 50 passes for 822 yards and nine touchdowns. At 6’2’’ and 215
pounds, Montgomery will present a mismatch wherever he lines up on the field. Hopefully
the Irish front seven will do a good enough job at bottling up the running game
so Notre Dame can bracket Montgomery with an extra defender for certain
situations. In the end, the key will be stopping the run. If Notre Dame can
hold the Cardinal under 150 yards rushing, I think they will have a chance to
win this game.
This game will be closer than most people think, but
ultimately I think Stanford is just a little bit better in every facet of the
game.
Prediction: Stanford
31, Notre Dame 23
-Eric Tichelbaut