The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame (7-2, 23rd
ranked) will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Panthers (4-4) tomorrow night.
The Irish will be looking to win their fifth straight game and keep their BCS
hopes alive after narrowly defeating Navy last weekend. Pittsburgh welcomes
Notre Dame hoping to avoid their third consecutive defeat after dropping their last
two contests to Navy and Georgia Tech.
Offensively, Notre Dame will be facing a much tougher test
than what they saw the last two weeks with Air Force and Navy. Pittsburgh is
allowing 26.8 points per game (66th), but they have a much stronger
defense in terms of total defense by allowing only 366 yards per game (33rd).
Pittsburgh biggest strength defensively is in their secondary where they are
only surrendering 202 passing yards per game which is good for 18th
best in the country. Based on that statistic, Tommy Rees could have a difficult
time moving the ball through the air. One of the reasons Pittsburgh has such a
good pass defense is because the Panthers get a tremendous surge from their
interior defensive linemen. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald is one of the best
defensive players in the nation. The senior lineman has 36 tackles (19.5
tackles for loss), and nine sacks on the season. He has been disruptive in the
passing game, so center Nick Martin and guards Chris Watt and Steve Elmer will
have to make sure they help each other out to give Rees enough time to read the
defense. But, the Irish have weapons to throw the ball to, so if Rees gets
time, I think he can still have a productive passing day. If the Irish passing
game is thwarted, they will have to rely on a running game that has been rejuvenated
in recent weeks. In particular, last week’s 264 yards on the ground was
highlighted by a 140 yard performance from true freshman Tarean Folston. Look
for Folston to receive the bulk of the carries once again as Brian Kelly has
been looking for someone to step into the featured-back role all season. In
addition to Folston, I also expect George Atkinson III and Cam McDaniel to receive
8-10 carries a piece. The Irish have a tougher assignment offensively this
week, but they should still be able to put up points provided they have a
balanced attack.
Defensively, the Irish are back to playing against a more
traditional offense. After facing Air Force and Navy the last two weeks, one
would expect the Irish defense to pick up where they left off after stifling the
USC Trojans offense three weeks ago. While that is certainly possible, the
Notre Dame defense will have to overcome a litany of injuries. Defensive
lineman Sheldon Day and Louis Nix are expected to play and that should provide
a boost in the trenches, but both are hobbled. In the last six games, Notre Dame has only had Day,
Nix, and Stephon Tuitt on the field together for 13 plays. The trio’s success
is evident by only allowing 21 yards and recording two sacks during those 13
snaps (Thanks to IrishIllustrated.com for that little nugget). Although Day and
Nix are returning, the Irish lack depth all over the defense and simply can’t
afford any more injuries. Looking at this Pittsburgh offense makes me think the
Irish matchup well defensively. The Panthers rank just 104th in
rushing offense at 122.5 yards per game, so I would not expect a huge day on
the ground considering the Irish typically have success versus traditional ground
attacks. Should the Irish stop the Panthers’ running game, Pittsburgh will have
to lean on veteran Tom Savage who is enjoying a solid senior season. Savage has
completed 60.7% of his passes thrown for 1,779 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven
interceptions. Notre Dame will need to generate pressure with their defensive
line because the linebackers and secondary will have their hands full with a
very talented receiving tandem. Senior Devin Street (40 rec, 690 yards, 4 TDs)
and true freshman Tyler Boyd (45 rec, 644 yards, 6 TDs) are both big, explosive
weapons at 6’4” and 6’2” respectively. If Savage gets time to throw, the Irish
secondary could be in for a long day. Given the big play potential for Street
and Boyd, I would expect defensive coordinator Bob Diaco to instruct his secondary
to keep everything in front of them. Because of that, Pittsburgh may have
multiple long drives, but Notre Dame will likely tighten up and keep the
Panthers out of the end zone more times than not.
Based on how these teams match up and the recent history, I am
expecting another close game. Ultimately, Notre Dame has more talent on both
sides of the ball and comes away with the victory.
Prediction: Notre
Dame 24, Pittsburgh 16
-Eric Tichelbaut
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