Sunday, March 31, 2013

2013 White Sox Season Preview: Rotation and Bullpen

1. Chris Sale, 24 (Opening Day age), LHP

After coming off of a breakout year in 2012, Sale will begin 2013 as the White Sox’ “ace” and Opening Day starter. The White Sox rewarded Sale for his efforts and signed him to a five-year; $32.5 million extension through the 2017 season. In all, it was smart move for both sides considering the amount of money and years guaranteed to the talented lefty. Last season, the White Sox were careful with Sale’s arm and monitored his innings by skipping some of his starts throughout the year. This year, the White Sox should be willing to let Sale go. After throwing 192 innings last season, Sale should have no trouble surpassing the 200 inning plateau that is often thought as a requirement to be considered an “ace”. That of course assumes that Sale remains healthy and on the mound for 30+ starts. If he is, expect more of the same from last year.

2012 Stats: 29 GS|17 W|8 L|192.0 IP|192 K|3.05 ERA|1.14 WHIP

2013 Projection: 32 GS|16 W|9 L|210.0 IP|205 K|3.31 ERA|1.16 WHIP

2. Jake Peavy, 31, RHP

In 2012, Peavy was able to pitch for an entire season for the first time since his CY Young award winning campaign in 2007. After undergoing career-threatening surgery on a torn latissimus dorsi tendon in 2010, Peavy responded with an impressive performance last season. Although he only won 11 games, Peavy’s other numbers and ratios suggest that he was a much better pitcher than his win-loss record would indicate. Peavy appeared on track to possibly win a CY Young during the first half of the season with a sparkling 2.85 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Unfortunately, his second half was not as effective with a 4.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP after the All-Star break. Since Peavy had not made more than 19 starts in a season since 2008, and was likely still recovering from the surgery, his numbers probably suffered due to fatigue from the long season. Hopefully, Peavy can put two solid halves together and fully return to the CY Young caliber pitcher he is capable of being.

2012 Stats: 32 GS|11 W|12 L|219.0 IP|194 K|3.37 ERA|1.10 WHIP

2013 Projection: 32 GS|17 W|9 L| 215.0 IP| 191 K|3.22 ERA|1.14 WHIP

3. Gavin Floyd, 30, RHP

Floyd will begin the 2013 season in the final year of his current contract, and it will likely be his last season in a White Sox uniform. At 30 years old, the White Sox will likely let Floyd go into free-agency where he will command more money than the Sox are willing to commit to him. Since Floyd is entering a “contract-year”, many people may think that he will have big year. However, I don’t think that will be the case. At this stage of his career, the White Sox know what kind of pitcher they have in Floyd. Floyd has made at least 29 starts the last five seasons and holds a career record of 70-66. In addition, Floyd’s career ERA (4.46) and WHIP (1.33) suggest that he is just an average major league pitcher. I would be very surprised if Floyd’s numbers in 2013 weren’t right around his career averages.

2012 Stats: 29 GS|12 W|11 L|168.0 IP|144 K|4.29 ERA|1.36 WHIP

2013 Projection: 31 GS| 11 W| 12 L| 184.0 IP|161 K|4.37 ERA|1.32 WHIP

4. Jose Quintana, 24, LHP

In 2012, Quintana really came out of nowhere to have a very nice year. When Quintana got a shot to start in May, he produced all-star caliber numbers in the first half of the season. After his first 8 starts, Quintana had an outstanding 2.04 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Since Quintana was acquired off of waivers from the New York Yankees, these numbers seemed too good to be true. Unfortunately, they were. After the all-star break, Quintana really struggled. The lefty made 14 starts and had a poor 5.01 ERA and even worse 1.62 WHIP. I don’t think that Quintana is either the pitcher that we saw in the first half or the second half. Given that, I would expect Quintana’s numbers to fall somewhere in the middle of the two, probably closer to his second half performance.

2012 Stats: 22 GS|6 W|6 L|136.1 IP|81 K|3.76 ERA|1.35 WHIP

2013 Projection: 30 GS|10 W|13 L|178.0 IP|125 K|4.41 ERA| 1.37 WHIP

5. John Danks, 27, LHP

Danks is coming off of a nightmare 2012 campaign. The lefty really struggled out of the gate, and his last start of the season was on May 19th. Ultimately, Danks’ season ended on August 6th when he underwent shoulder surgery. Danks is currently on the road to recovery and will begin the season on the disabled list while he tries to build-up arm strength. Danks is eligible to come off of the DL on April 6th, but that would be highly optimistic. It remains to be seen when Danks will actually return to the mound, but I would guess it would be closer to May 1st. There is no reason for the White Sox to rush things, and they would prefer to have Danks from May through September, rather than having to put him back on the DL later in the year. In the meantime, Dylan Axelrod will take Danks’ spot in the rotation until he is ready to return to the mound. If Danks is fully healthy when he returns, then I would expect his numbers to be closer to his career averages of a 4.12 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

2012 Stats: 9 GS|3 W|4 L|53.2 IP|30 K|5.70 ERA|1.49 WHIP

2013 Projection: 26 GS|9 W|9 L|156.0 IP|121 K|4.19 ERA|1.33 WHIP

Addison Reed, 24, RHP

The White Sox selected Reed out of San Diego State in the third round of the 2010 first-year player draft with intentions of him being their future closer. In 2012, Reed recorded his first major league save on May 5th, and he was the White Sox closer for the remainder of the season. Reed finished the year converting 29 of his 33 save opportunities, despite having a less than ideal 4.75 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. However, Reed’s 54 strikeouts in 55 innings suggest that he has the swing-and-miss type stuff that is usually required for a closer. The White Sox certainly hope his numbers improve, but ultimately all that matters is that Reed is closing out wins at a successful rate. Given that it was Reed’s first full season in the big leagues and his first season as a closer, I would expect his numbers to improve in his second season. If that is the case, then expect Reed to establish himself as one of the better closers in the American League.

2012 Stats: 62 G|3 W|2 L|29 SV|55.0 IP|54 K|4.75 ERA|1.36 WHIP

2013 Projection: 68 G|3 W|3 L|36 SV|62.0 IP|71 K|3.55 ERA|1.19 WHIP

Rest of the Pitching Staff:

Dylan Axelrod, 27, RHP: Axelrod will begin the season as the fifth starter until John Danks is ready. Axelrod has a 3.21 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this spring with 12 strikeouts in 14 innings. He should do fine as a fill-in, but hopefully he won’t have to start too many games. Axelrod will likely return to the minors once Danks is healthy.

Hector Santiago, 25, LHP: In 2012, Santiago pitched in just about every role imaginable. He flopped as a closer, but found his niche as a long-reliever and even a spot-starter. Santiago owned a 3.33 ERA with 79 strikeouts in 70.1 innings. With his versatility, Santiago should be a valuable member of the White Sox pitching staff.

Donnie Veal, 28, LHP: Veal was flat-out dominant in his brief time with the team last season. After not pitching in the major leagues since 2009, Veal appeared in 24 games for the White Sox. Veal served as a lefty-specialist and pitched 13 innings, while striking out 19 batters. That ratio, coupled with a 1.38 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and .111 BAA should come in handy versus many of the left-handed hitters in the American League Central.

Matt Lindstrom, 33, RHP: The White Sox signed Lindstrom in the offseason after he spent last season in Baltimore and Arizona. Lindstrom brings some experience and depth to the bullpen that it seriously lacked last season. Lindstrom has some experience closing games, but he is better served as a 7th inning guy. Lindstrom finished 2012 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.

Nate Jones, 27, RHP: In 2012, Jones made his major league debut and did not disappoint. Jones managed an 8-0 record as a reliever, but don’t expect that to happen again as wins for a reliever are extremely fluky. More importantly, Jones struck out 65 batters in 71.2 innings and had a 2.39 ERA. Jones’ WHIP was a bit high at 1.38, but that should come down a little as his control improves with more experience.

Jesse Crain, 31, RHP: Crain’s status for Opening Day was in question after suffering a strained adductor (hip) this spring, but he appears on track for Monday. Crain is coming off of a very impressive 2012 campaign, and should be very solid once again. Crain finished 2012 with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, while striking out 60 batters in 48 innings. Crain figures to be one of the White Sox most reliable relievers and could step into the closers’ role should Addison Reed struggle.

Matt Thornton, 36, LHP: Gone are the days when Thornton was arguably the best left-handed setup man in baseball. From 2008 to 2010, Thornton struck out 245 batters in only 200.1 innings pitched. Also, over that time frame, Thornton’s ERA was between 2.67-2.74 and his WHIP was between 1.00-1.08. Although Thornton will no longer produce those types of numbers, he still remains a very effective reliever. Expect Thornton to put up numbers close to last year and his career averages of a 3.51 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07

Saturday, March 30, 2013

2013 White Sox Season Preview: Lineup and Bench

1. Alejandro De Aza, 28 (Opening Day Age), CF

De Aza is coming off a solid 2012 season as the White Sox leadoff man. A rib injury caused him to miss the second half of August, but De Aza was atop the Sox’ lineup just about every day when healthy. De Aza doesn’t do one thing particular great, but does enough to be a productive player. He has some surprising pop, above-average speed, solid fielding skills, and an average throwing arm. While De Aza is a good major leaguer, he is likely going to be pushed aside for one of the White Sox promising outfield prospects in the future, maybe as early as next season. But, until then De Aza is a more than serviceable leadoff option. Given his age, turning 29 in mid-April, expect De Aza to post similar numbers to last season’s.

2012 Stats: 131 G|524 AB|.281 AVG|.349 OBP|9 HR|50 RBI|81 R|26 SB

2013 Projection: 151 G|576 AB|.283 AVG|.347 OBP|10 HR|54 RBI|92 R|28 SB

2. Jeff Keppinger, 32, 3B

The White Sox signed Keppinger in the offseason to a three-year; $12 million contract to be their starting third baseman. While Keppinger certainly does not provide the power you would typically want from your corner infielder, he does give the White Sox a more ideal number two hitter with a history to make contact at an elite rate. Keppinger has been a utility player for the majority of his career, but has always performed well when given an opportunity to play. The White Sox like the versatility that he can provide, but also feel as though he can contribute enough offensively to be an everyday player. Whether or not he can do that remains to be seen, but I think he can.

2012 Stats: 115 G|385 AB|.325 AVG|.367 OBP|9 HR|40 RBI|46 R|1 SB

2013 Projection: 145 G|553 AB|.297 AVG|.341 OBP|13 HR|62 RBI|83 R|2 SB

3. Alex Rios, 32, RF

After spending most of the time in the fifth spot of the White Sox lineup in 2012, Rios will now bat third. Robin Ventura probably wants more speed and a higher average player out of his third spot. Rios is coming off of his best season as a White Sox, and should be able to produce similar numbers. He is the only player that the Sox have capable of putting up 20/20 numbers, and is the closest thing the White Sox have to a five-tool player. Rios will be looking to avoid having a poor year like he did in 2011, after a strong 2010 campaign. In addition to his offensive skills, Rios has also provided above-average defense by being a capable centerfielder that plays rightfield.

2012 Stats: 157 G|605 AB|.304 AVG|.334 OBP|25 HR|91 RBI|93 R|23 SB

2013 Projection: 154 G|612 AB|.282 AVG|.329 OBP|23 HR|84 RBI|97 R|25 SB

4. Adam Dunn, 33, DH

After a historically bad 2011 season where he batted just .159 with 11 HRs and 42 RBIs, Dunn fared much better in 2012. While his batting average was still a dismal .204, Dunn was able to hit 41 HRs while driving in 96 runs. Obviously, the White Sox were hoping for much more when they signed Dunn to a four-year; $56 million deal prior to the 2011 season. Dunn may never be the .240 to .260 AVG hitter that he typically was before joining the White Sox, but it was reassuring to see his power numbers restored in 2012. In a surprising move, manager Robin Ventura is moving Dunn to the clean-up spot this season to hit in-between Alex Rios and Paul Konerko. Hopefully the move pays off by providing Dunn with more protection, but I personally feel he should be hitting fifth, behind Konerko.

2012 Stats: 151 G|539 AB|.204 BA|.333 OBP|41 HR|96 RBI|87 R|2 SB

2013 Projection: 150 G|535 AB|.219 BA|.348 OBP|38 HR|93 RBI|84 R|1 SB

5. Paul Konerko, 37, 1B

Konerko is entering the final year of his current contract, and it could possibly be the final season of his career, let alone in Chicago. Konerko has been a mainstay in the White Sox lineup since 1999, and has also been the captain of the team for several years now. In 2012, Konerko saw his home run and RBI totals drop off quite a bit to his career seasonal averages. Part of that was because of some nagging injuries throughout the season, and Konerko was even placed on the 7-day disabled list for suffering a concussion. As Konerko enters the final year(s) of his career his numbers won’t likely reach the 30 HR/100 RBI plateaus, but I believe he still has a few very productive years left in him.

2012 Stats: 144 G|533 AB|.298 AVG|.371 OBP|26 HR|75 RBI|66 R|0 SB

2013 Projection: 147 G|541 AB|.289 AVG|.362 OBP|28 HR|90 RBI|73 R|0 SB

6. Dayan Viciedo, 24, LF

Viciedo enters the 2013 season as my favorite White Sox player as in terms of trying to project his statistical performance. Viciedo’s offensive tools are highlighted by his raw power and bat speed that are arguably unmatched by any player in the American League. His strength and the way the ball jumps off his bat has given him the nickname of “Tank” every since he put on a White Sox uniform. Viciedo’s only weakness at the plate is his tendency to swing at everything. If he could ever learn how to lay-off of the low-and-away breaking balls, then his numbers would sky rocket. Viciedo, like many Latin-born players, will likely never walk at a high rate, but the fact that he hits the ball hard nearly every time will most likely lead to a higher average than most free-swingers. In addition, Viciedo appears to be very comfortable with his new “leg-kick” that he has implemented this offseason to help time his swing. If Viciedo can build on an impressive 2012 season and make adjustments, then the 24-year-old may be in for a breakout 2013 campaign. I believe that will prove to be the case.

2012 Stats: 147 G|505 AB|.255 AVG|.300 OBP|25 HR|78 RBI|64 R|0 SB

2013 Projection: 152 G|523 AB|.278 AVG|.323 OBP|33 HR|92 RBI|69 R|1 SB

7. Alexei Ramirez, 31, SS

Ramirez enters the 2013 season coming off of slightly-down 2012 campaign. The “Cuban Missile” had the lowest production of his career in terms of runs scored, home runs, batting average, and on-base percentage. Surprisingly, at age 30, Alexei was able to swipe a career-high 20 bases last season. Ever since defecting from Cuba, Ramirez has been a pretty consistent performer offensively and defensively. During the first couple seasons, Ramirez would have a dazzling play a shortstop, only to have a head-scratching play the next inning. Fortunately, the errors have been declining the last three years now and over that time, Ramirez has become one of the best defensive shortstops in all of baseball. At age 31, expect Ramirez to put up similar numbers across the board in 2013.

2012 Stats: 158 G|593 AB|.265 AVG|.287 OBP|9 HR|73 RBI|59 R|20 SB

2013 Projection: 156 G|585 AB|.269 AVG|.301 OBP|12 HR|67 RBI|56 R|17 SB

8. Tyler Flowers, 27, C

Flowers will begin his first season as a full-time catcher in 2013, and he is probably the hardest player on the White Sox to project. Since Flowers has spent the majority of his time in the majors backing up A.J. Pierzynski, he has never received enough consistent at-bats to show what he can do offensively. All we do know is that his power is legit. Flowers possess a ton of raw power and has already shown an ability to hit some mammoth home runs. The only question mark with Flowers is his ability to make contact at high enough rate to produce a decent batting average. Really, I could see Flowers hitting anywhere from .210 to .270 just based on the fact that we don’t know what he is capable of hitting. Flowers did only hit .213 last year, but that was in just 136 at-bats. What’s encouraging is that Flowers’ minor league statistics suggests that he could hit for a much higher average. Over six seasons and 1,852 at-bats in the minor leagues, Flowers owns a .275 AVG with an impressive .391 OBP. Many White Sox fans are very concerned about whether or not Flowers can replace the void left by Pierzynski. While Flowers may not have the leadership and intangibles that A.J. had, Sox fans should give him a chance before completely writing him off.

2012 Stats: 52 G|136 AB|.213 AVG|.296 OBP|7 HR|13 RBI|19 R|2 SB

2013 Projection: 132 G|424 AB|.241 AVG|.326 OBP|20 HR|51 RBI|48 R|4 SB

9. Gordon Beckham, 26, 2B

In 2012, Beckham had his best season since his rookie year in 2009. Beckham’s batting average and on-base percentage left a lot to be desired last season, but his power numbers returned closer to where they should be at. Although it was a better season for Beckham, I still believe his is capable of much more. Last season, particularly in the second half, Beckham improved both his walk and strikeout rates which should have lead to more contact and more opportunities to get on base. Unfortunately, an extremely low BABIP (.254 and .235 in the second half) didn’t help Beckham’s cause. If Beckham can keep improving his walk and strikeout rates while seeing some normalization in BABIP, then he could be in for a career-year. My blog last weekend examined this theory in much greater depth.

2012 Stats: 151 G|525 AB|.234 AVG|.296 OBP|16 HR|60 RBI|62 R|5 SB

2013 Projection: 153 G|532 AB|.271 AVG|.332 OBP|21 HR|72 RBI|69 R|5 SB

Bench:

Hector Gimenez, 30, C: Gimenez has been a minor leaguer for the majority of his career, and has only appeared in 11 games over the course of three seasons. Gimenez will serve as the White Sox back-up catcher to Tyler Flowers. He is batting .378 this spring in 37 at-bats, but obviously that won’t continue while only playing once a week.

Conor Gillaspie, 25, 3B/1B: Gillaspie was acquired at the beginning on the spring from the San Francisco Giants. Gillaspie was brought in to compete for a roster spot, and won that spot with an impressive spring. Gillaspie hit just .234, but did have two home runs and ten RBIs in 47 at-bats. Gillaspie mainly made the roster because he bats left-handed, and he can play both third and first base.

Angel Sanchez, 29, SS/2B: The White Sox acquired Sanchez during the 2012 Rule 5 draft to add depth to their infield. Sanchez was also brought in to compete for a utility role, and won that role while having a good spring. Sanchez hit .350 with two homers and five RBIs in 40 at-bats. More importantly, Sanchez can play both shortstop and second base while providing adequate defense.

Dewayne Wise, 35, OF: This will be Wise’s fourth year (second-stint) as a member of the White Sox. Wise was re-acquired last season to give the Sox outfield depth, and played a lot when Alejandro De Aza missed time due to an injury. Wise provides the White Sox with another left-handed hitter off of the bench with some surprising pop, and can play all three outfield positions. Wise will likely play twice a week while giving days off to the starting outfielders.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Beckham Ready to Breakout?

At age 26, and entering his 5th season in the big leagues, second baseman Gordon Beckham is running out of time to reach his lofty expectations. Beckham was drafted 8th overall by the White Sox in the 2008 first-year player draft. After being a star shortstop at the University of Georgia, many scouts expected Beckham to be a perennial all-star as a .300 hitter with potential to hit 25 home runs. After playing 103 games in the 2009 season while batting .270 with 14 home runs and 63 RBIs, those expectations seem warranted. However, ever since his rookie season Beckham has only regressed. Can that pattern be reversed?

Before I give you my opinion, we need to examine some of Beckham’s stats over his first four seasons in the major leagues. The following stats will be analyzed: Batting Average, On-base percentage (OBP), Home Runs, RBIs, Runs scored, Walk Rate, Strikeout Rate, and Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP).

Year: AVG OBP HR RBI R BB% K% BABIP

2009: .270 .347 14 63 58 9.5% 15.1% .290
2010: .252 .317 9 49 58 7.4% 18.5% .297
2011: .230 .296 10 44 60 6.3% 19.9% .276
2012: .234 .296 16 60 62 6.9% 15.3% .254

Just by glancing at his stats, it is easy to say that Beckham has regressed every year since his rookie season. In 2011 and 2012, Beckham’s batting average and OBP were nearly identical. Based on the 301 games he played in those two seasons, this could very well be the player that Beckham is for his entire career. If it is, than the White Sox will be severely disappointed by using a first round selection on him. But, I believe that Beckham can be a much better hitter than what his batting average and OBP suggests over the last two seasons. Here is why.

In 2012, Beckham made some strides in two statistical categories that leave reason for hope. Beckham’s 6.9% walk percentage was better than the 6.3% he posted in 2011. While his walk rate only increased 0.6%, it is worth noting that his percentage was much higher in the second half last season. In the second half of 2012, Beckham posted a 9.0% walk percentage. Granted that is only a half season, but it is still much closer to his 9.5% walk rate during his rookie season in 2009. In addition, an 11.6% walk rate in the month of September is certainly something that Beckham can look to build on during the 2013 campaign. This spring, Beckham has only walked once in 59 plate appearances. This is certainly a little concerning, but I wouldn’t panic. During the spring, hitters typically are not looking to walk a whole lot. Also, Beckham has been working on shortening his approach and swing this spring, and as a result he is likely trying to swing at as many pitches as possible to work on his new technique.

The other statistical category that greatly improved in 2012 was Beckham’s strikeout rate. In 2011, Beckham had a strikeout rate of 19.9%. Meaning, Beckham struck out in 19.9% of his plate appearances. In 2012, Beckham decreased his strikeout rate to 15.3%, the lowest since his 15.1% rate during his rookie year. This is a very dramatic improvement (+4.6%), and suggest that Beckham is starting to lay off of pitches out of the strike zone. What is even better, during the second half of 2012, Beckham’s strikeout rate was 13.7% (highlighted by an 11.6% in the month of September). If Beckham made such improvements in his walk and strikeout rates, then why weren’t his results any better?

The answer to this is a severely low BABIP compared to the league average. BABIP measures a player’s batting average with balls hit into play, and the league average is roughly between .290 and .310. Certainly there are exceptions to this, some faster players may have higher BABIPs, but this serves as a general guideline. In 2009 and 2010, Beckham’s BABIPs were .290 and .297 respectively. These numbers fall within the league average, and thus legitimize Beckham’s higher batting averages during those two seasons. In 2011, Beckham’s BABIP was lower than average at .276, but this wasn’t drastic enough to suggest his .230 batting average was a result of just bad luck. Beckham’s below average walk and strikeout rates were more responsible for his low batting average. However, in 2012, Beckham’s BABIP plummeted to .254. Furthermore, despite Beckham’s improvements in his walk and strikeout rates during the second half, he was “rewarded” with an even worse BABIP of .235 in the second half. These numbers are an extreme deviation to the league average, and suggest that Beckham hit into some really bad luck last season. The very low BABIP coupled with better walk and strikeout rates make me believe that Beckham could be in line for some serious improvements in batting average and OBP in 2013.

It remains to be seen whether or not Beckham will have a breakout year in 2013, but the statistical analysis that I gave certainly provides some optimism. If Beckham can sustain the walk and strikeout rates that he had last years, especially during the second half, then I expect Beckham’s numbers to return to where they should be. I wouldn’t expect Beckham to all of a sudden hit .300 with a .360 OBP, he may never become that type of hitter. However, a batting average and OBP closer to his rookie season is certainly possible based on the improvements Beckham made last season. If that occurs, then Beckham’s RBI and run scored totals are likely to increase as well. With a boost in offensive production, the White Sox will be very pleased to have Beckham as their second baseman considering the exceptional defense that he already provides. I was going to end this by posting my statistical projections for Beckham, but I’ll save that for my season preview installments that will be coming later this week.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Bracket Breakdown

With the opening round games underway, and the real action set to begin on Thursday, I wanted to share my thoughts on this years' NCAA Tournament. I'll breakdown each region while discussing the best match-ups, sleepers, cinderellas, and my favorites to make it to Atlanta.

East Region

This region is very top-heavy with Louisville, Duke, and Michigan State as the top three seeds. Everyone is already looking forward to a potential Michigan State vs Duke match-up in the Sweet Sixteen. The winner of that could play Louisville in the Elite 8. Needless to say, the talent on those three teams and the legendary coaches would provide plenty of hype. Given that, I would be shocked to see any other teams from this region make it to the Final Four.

Best Match-up: 5-Oklahoma State vs 12-Oregon

Sleeper: 4-Saint Louis

Cinderella: 7-Creighton

My pick: 1-Louisville

West Region

This region appears to be wide open. I am not convinced in Gonzaga's ability to reach the Final Four due to their weak strength of schedule. The Zags can run into trouble if they have to play some physical teams like Wisconsin, Kansas State, or Ohio State. While those three teams could present a difficult match-up for Gonzaga, I am not entirely sold on any of their chances to make the Final Four. Don't be surprised if teams like New Mexico, Notre Dame, Iowa State, or Belmont make a deep run in the region. Like I said, this one is very unpredictable.

Best Match-up: 7-Notre Dame vs 10-Iowa State

Sleeper: 5-Wisconsin

Cinderella: 11-Belmont

My Pick: 3-New Mexico

South Region

This region is loaded with teams capable of making a run. It would not surprise me to see Kansas, Georgetown, Florida, Michigan, or VCU make it to Atlanta. All of these teams have either the talent or experience to make a serious run, which could make for some very exciting games. I really don't see any mid-major type cinderella team, but plenty of talented lower seeded teams from big conferences could present problems for the top 3 seeds in the second round.

Best Match-up: 8-North Carolina vs 9-Villanova

Sleeper: 5-VCU

Cinderella: 11-Minnesota

My Pick: 2-Georgetown

East Region

This region features the team I liked to win-it-all back in January, Indiana. When I saw the region, it looked like Indiana got a good draw because I have a hard time making a case for anyone else to survive the region. Miami has been great since conference play began, but they lack tournament experience. Marquette is a very sold team, but the have probably overachieved this season. Syracuse might be Indiana's toughest test, but they have lost 5 out of their last 9 games and looked awful in the second half of the Big East Final versus Louisville. Despite all their flaws, Indiana still has several high-quality teams in their way to Atlanta.

Best Match-up: 6-Butler vs 11-Bucknell

Sleeper: 6-Butler

Cinderella: 11-Bucknell

My Pick: 1-Indiana

Final Four:

1-Louisville over 3-New Mexico
1-Indiana over 2-Georgetown

Final:

1-Indiana over 1-Louisville

As always, the next three weeks should be full of madness. (Lame, I know. But, I couldn't help myself.)

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Bears add Bennett, Bushrod

The NFL free agency period kicked off Tuesday, and the Chicago Bears were ready to make an impact. General Manager Phil Emery wasted no time by adding two big free-agents and filling two glaring holes to the Bears roster. The first move of the day was signing tight end Martellus Bennett to a four-year deal. Just hours later, the Bears continued to add to their team by agreeing to a five-year contract with left tackle Jermon Bushrod.

With the two additions, the Bears have filled arguably their two biggest needs of the offseason by adding a legitimate pass-catching tight end and a pro-bowl caliber left tackle. Finally. The Bears have been searching for a left tackle for several years now. They have used countless draft picks on trying to find a left tackle, only to see most, if not all become busts. Prior to the 2011 season, the Bears traded tight end Greg Olsen to the Carolina Panthers. Ever since then, the Bears have not had a player that even resembles a tight end with skills in the passing game. With Olsen, the Bears were not satisfied with his ability to help out with blocking. By drafted Kellen Davis in 2008, the Bears thought they had found someone that could not only block, but could also be a threat in the passing game for their future. Obviously, that was never the case. Now with the addition of Bennett, the Bears appear to have actually found the player they thought Davis could become.

Martellus Bennett comes to Chicago coming off of a 55 catch, 626 yard season with 5 touchdowns. Now, those are certainly not Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham type numbers, but it is vastly superior to what the Bears had last season. Kellen Davis only had 19 catches for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns. Not only did Bennett out-perform Davis last season, but Bennett's 2012 season was more productive than Davis' entire five-year career in terms of catches and yardage. With Davis only having 47 receptions and 529 yards during his career, it is apparent that the Bears have significantly upgraded the tight end position.

Jermon Bushrod's arrival to Chicago will be highly anticipated by the Bears and their fans. Since acquiring Jay Cutler prior to the 2009 season, the Bears' offensive line has been in shambles. More times than not, Cutler has had to run for his life in order to avoid injury. I realize that Cutler has poor mechanics and a tendency to throw off his back foot, but constantly being pressured and feeling the need to get rid of the ball quickly has certainly added to his struggles. If Cutler is provided time to throw, he should thrive in Marc Trestman's offense with weapons to utilize such as Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and now Martellus Bennett. By acquiring Bushrod, the Bears can now also move their other offensive linemen down the depth chart. With Bushrod as left tackle, J'Marcus Webb could move to right tackle, and Gabe Camiri could play guard opposite of Lance Louis provided he returns. By moving Webb and Camiri to less important roles on the offensive line, the Bears have now essentially upgraded three offensive line positions with one move.

After thinking about both acquisitions, I really like what the Bears have done. Bennett will be a major upgrade in the passing and blocking games, and Bushrod helps to solidify the Bears entire offensive line. In addition, by adding a tight end and left tackle to the roster, the Bears do not have to use their first round pick on either one of the positions. The Bears may still be looking to draft an offensive lineman, preferably right tackle D.J. Fluker, but it isn't as important. The now have some flexibility and may look to add a linebacker to replace Brian Urlacher(whether or not he returns), or even possibly could look to trade their first round pick to move down in the draft to acquire more picks. Either way, it was a productive day for the Bears and a nice way to begin their offseason.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07

Friday, March 8, 2013

Kiel Set to Transfer from Notre Dame

On Thursday, former five-star recruit and redshirt freshman quarterback Gunner Kiel, asked Notre Dame for permission to transfer from the university. After hearing this news, I would be lying if I said I was surprised. Kiel's recruiting process and commitment to Notre Dame was well documented. He was originally committed to Indiana, then switched to LSU before ultimately choosing Notre Dame at the last minute. Through all the hesitation, it was obvious that Kiel had no clue as to where he wanted to play his collegiate ball.

For Notre Dame, it is never a good thing to lose a talented quarterback, but it shouldn't be a major blow. Last season, redshirt freshman Everett Golson was able to help lead Notre Dame to an undefeated regular season. While it was not pretty during the first half of the season, Golson really improved his play during the final weeks of the season. After being replaced by Tommy Rees on several occasions, most notably versus Purdue, Michigan, and Stanford, Golson helped lead the Irish to a big victory at Oklahoma and a comeback win versus Pittsburgh. With having a full season of experience and showing signs of tremendous potential, it has become apparent that Golson will be Brian Kelly's quarterback for potentially the next three seasons. In addition, incoming four-star freshman Malik Zaire will redshirt this season. With Golson under center for the foreseeable future and Zaire waiting in the wings, Notre Dame could afford to lose a player like Kiel. Unfortunately things did not work out, but sometimes that is the nature of recruiting and college football.

For Gunner Kiel, it is certainly understandable why he would want to transfer. For any high-profile recruit, their dreams and goals probably extend beyond playing college football. Kiel does not want to sit on the bench for three years and only play his senior season. By transferring, Kiel will most likely be able to start for up to three seasons at a smaller school after he sits out a year for transferring. After the news broke that Kiel was set to transfer, reported landing spots were Ball State, Miami of Ohio, Northern Illinois, and Cincinnati. By going to any of those schools, Kiel would undoubtedly become their most talented quarterback and should have plenty of opportunities for playing time beginning in 2014. Hopefully this will work out well for Gunner Kiel and wish him the best of luck in the future.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07

Thursday, March 7, 2013

White Sox Extend Sale

On Thursday, the Chicago White Sox and Chris Sale agreed to a contract extension that could potentially keep the lefty on the south side through the 2019 season. At the very least, Sale will be a member of the White Sox for the next five seasons after agreeing to a 5-year, $32.5 million extension through the 2017 season. In addition, the deal includes two separate team options for the 2018 and 2019 seasons.

Sale, who will be 24 years old when the season starts, will see an increase of yearly salary every year of the new deal. Starting this season, Sale will earn $850,000, $3.5 million in 2014, $6 million in 2015, $9.15 million in 2016, and $12 million in 2017. If the White Sox were to exercise their club options in 2018 and 2019, Sale would make a hefty $12.5 and $13.5 million respectively. In all, the new deal could escalate to be a 7-year, $60 million extension if both options are picked up and if Sale wins a Cy Young Award.

In the end, this is a very smart deal for both parties involved. For the White Sox, they are avoiding three years of arbitration and Sale’s first year of free-agency. With the way arbitration works, if Sale continues to perform how he did in 2012, then the very worst the White Sox will be paying is market value for the next three years. The real potential bargain for the Sox will come in 2016 and beyond when Sale would become a free-agent. In 2016, Sale will be 27 years old and in the prime of his career. Based on the market for starting pitching and the fact that Sale is one of the league’s best left-handers, he could demand anywhere from $15 -$20 million a year in a 5-7 year deal.

While this deal appears to heavily favor the White Sox, there are inherent risks when signing any young pitcher to a long-term contract. The only question surrounding Sale since he was drafted out of college was durability. Many scouts were split on whether or not they thought that Sale could handle the rigors of pitching 200-plus innings every year. Sale’s lanky body type, violent delivery, and “inverted W” arm-action have led many people to believe that his elbow will not hold up. Personally, I still have my doubts about Sale’s ability to stay healthy and cringe every time that he tries to bury slider to hitters. Furthermore, the White Sox seemed to already have concerns when they shifted Sale to the closers’ role early in the 2012 season due to “elbow tenderness”. However, that only lasted about a week until he was reinserted into the starting rotation. Throughout the rest of the season, the White Sox monitored Sale’s performances and gave the lefty extra days off when necessary. With the Sox offering Sale a new contract, it appears that they are at least willing to take the risk. Given Sale’s superior talent and dominant potential, the new contract is very team friendly. The White Sox have not committed a reckless amount of money, and they should be able to absorb any money owed to Sale if he were to succumb to any severe injury.

On the other hand, this is also a great deal for Chris Sale. Although he will not be making a ton of money up front, Sale is guaranteed to make at least $32.5 million dollars and will still be able to test free-agency at the age of 30. While Sale will have already reached his potential, he should still be able to sign a very lucrative multi-year deal while he approaches the last few years of his prime. In addition, for someone that makes their living by depending on their physical health, it is always important to make as much money as you can while your body still allows you to pitch. As a young pitcher there is no way to predict your future health, and Sale would have been foolish not to accept the extension. Sale gets to spend the next 5-7 years with the organization that drafted him in the first round, and now has a chance to prove many of his doubters wrong. Hopefully for the White Sox and Chris Sale, this contract extension will prove to be a success.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07

Monday, March 4, 2013

Danks Returns to the Mound

John Danks returned to the mound for the first time since undergoing surgery on his left shoulder on August 6th of last year. The procedure to repair a capsule tear and remove debris in his rotator cuff and biceps ended Danks’ 2012 season. The surgery also revealed that Danks’ had no tear in his labrum, which would have required reconstructive surgery. Since that was not the case, the White Sox were counting on Danks to be at full strength to start the 2013 season.

On Monday, Danks took the first step towards a full recovery by pitching into the third inning versus the San Francisco Giants. The lefty went 2-plus innings while giving up one run on two hits (a solo homer) in a 6-2 victory. Danks threw 35 pitches (27 strikes) on the afternoon, and finished his day with no walks and no strike outs.

All things considered, it was a positive performance for the 27-year-old in his spring debut. The most important thing to take away from the game was the fact that Danks threw a lot of strikes and did not walk a batter. Danks threw only fastballs and changeups as he works on building up his arm strength and getting his command back. With it being his first start in nearly seven months, Danks’ fastball sat between 85-89 MPH. That may not seem like much, but given that he hasn’t pitched a lot lately, the velocity will likely return as his arm strength improves. As the spring progress, look for Danks to add 3-4 MPHs to that range and have his fastball back to his usually range of 88-93 MPH.

But, velocity has never been Danks’ strongest asset. Having movement and command of his pitches is the key to Danks’ success, which is why it was important to see him throw a lot of strikes. When Danks is at his best, he relies on his cutter/changeup mix to move the hitters’ eyes. By having movement on his fastball and the ability to change speeds, Danks is able to attack the strike zone and get both righties and lefties out consistently.

In 2012, the White Sox did not see that from Danks. Whether it was because of the injury or not, Danks had his worst season since his rookie year in 2007. If the White Sox are going to contend in 2013, then Danks will have to return to the pitcher he was from 2008-2010. Without a healthy and effective Danks, the White Sox rotation will be average at best. However, if Danks can stay healthy and pitch up to his potential, then the White Sox rotation could be one of the best in the American League. Danks would slide in nicely behind Chris Sale and Jake Peavy as the number three starter ahead of Gavin Floyd and either Jose Quintana or Hector Santiago.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07

Sunday, March 3, 2013

Peavy Primed for Big Year?

When Jake Peavy completely tore his right latissimus dorsi tendon, many medical experts feared that his career was over. Peavy tore the lat tendon, which connects the lat muscle to the bone and helps transfer the force of pitching in his right arm. Up until it occurred on July 6th, 2010, no major league pitcher had been known to suffer the injury. Peavy underwent a surgery that his surgeon never had attempted, and took the risk because he didn’t want his career to be over. On May 11th, 2011, Peavy returned to the mound for the first time since the surgery. Peavy made 19 starts the rest of the season as he worked on strengthening his lat and arm. His stats, highlighted by a 4.92 ERA, indicated that he was not fully recovered from the procedure. In 2012, Peavy pitched his first full season since the injury. Peavy threw 219 innings with a 3.37 ERA while posting a 1.10 WHIP and striking out 194 batters. By looking at the numbers, it appeared that he was back to being the top-of-the-rotation pitcher the White Sox had envisioned when they acquired him at the 2009 MLB trade deadline. However, by examining his pre- and post-all star stats, it showed that Peavy may have still been impacted by the career-threatening injury.

2012 Season Stats

Pre-All Star - 17 Starts: 7-5 record, 4 CG, 1 SHO, 120 IP, 8.10 K/9, 1.95 BB/9, 2.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

Post-All Star - 15 Starts: 4-7 record, 0 CG, 0 SHO, 99 IP, 7.82 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Peavy’s first half numbers warranted the all-star selection that he received, but his average second half leaves some room for improvement. Since Peavy was unable to finish any one of his 15 second half starts, it shows that his endurance and stamina may have not been at full strength as the season progressed. By only making 19 starts in 2011 and 17 in 2010, Peavy’s arm strength probably was not ready for an entire season’s workload. As a result, Peavy’s second half performance was not as good. By having a decreased strike out rate and increased walk rate in the second half, it would indicate that Peavy’s stuff and command was not as crisp as it was during the first half of the season. Therefore, he allowed more base runners and gave up more runs. After completing his first full season since the injury, hopefully Peavy will now be ready to perform up to his capabilities for an entire season.

Although Peavy may have faltered a bit down the stretch, 2012 was still a very successful season. Most of Peavy’s stats were his highest since he won the National League Cy Young award in 2007. Peavy’s innings pitched, wins, strike outs, and WHIP were all his best totals since 2007. Coming off of last year, Peavy will have a chance to build on that success and try to pitch more consistently throughout the season. If Peavy can pitch close to the way he did in the first-half of last season for an entire year, then 2013 could turn into something special for the right-hander. At 31 (turns 32 May 31st), Peavy is at the tail-end of his peak years. After signing a two-year $29 million extension in the offseason, the White Sox and Peavy both hope that he can officially return to his elite status and contend for an American League Cy Young award.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Konerko Should Retire as a Sox

First Baseman Paul Konerko is entering the final year of a 3-year deal that was signed prior to the 2011 season. The veteran has been a member of the White Sox for 14 seasons, debuting in 1999. During his time on the south side, Konerko has been a leader, captain, and offensive force for the White Sox. He has supplied great power, a good average, and underrated defense all while playing at least 137 games every season. In addition, Konerko has been a 6-time all-star and a World Series champion. Following A.J. Pierzynski’s departure this offseason, Konerko is the only member of the 2005 World Series team that still remains. As Konerko gets set to play the last year of his contract, he continues to be an effective player. Given his production and status as team captain, the White Sox would be wise to make sure Konerko retires in Chicago.

Paul Konerko will enter the 2013 season at 37 years old, and because of that the White Sox do not need to offer him an extension right now. However, if Konerko remains healthy and has a desire to continue playing baseball following the 2013 season, the White Sox should offer him a two-year contract through the 2015 season. That contract would allow Konerko to play until he is 39 years old, and more likely to retire as he approaches 40s. Since Konerko has already expressed that he would not rule out retiring after this season, it makes me believe that he will not be playing baseball into his 40s. Furthermore, those statements also lead me to think that Konerko would rather retire than play for another team.

During Konerko’s tenure as a White Sox, he has been a fan favorite and the face of the franchise. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf has always been fond of Konerko. He played a vital role in delivering Reinsdorf his first and only World Series trophy, and also gave Reinsdorf the “final out” baseball from World Series clinching Game 4. Those two things, along with Konerko’s play, have already earned him two separate contracts and would likely force Reinsdorf to once again fork over the money needed to re-sign him.

If you are worried about Konerko’s age and potential declining skills, don’t be. Konerko has shown little signs of slowing down offensively, and should be able to post more than useful numbers for the next three seasons. As Konerko continues to get older, he will be able to split time at first base and designated hitter for the next two years while Adam Dunn is still a member of the team. The White Sox do not have a known replacement for Konerko at this time, but outfielder Dayan Viciedo could be a possible candidate to replace Konerko in 2016. Viciedo’s size, power, and mediocre fielding skills make him a strong candidate to fill that void. With Adam Dunn gone after the 2014 season, Konerko could help teach and mentor Viciedo while splitting time with him at first base and DH.

By playing his final three seasons as a White Sox, Konerko would also likely reach 500 home runs. Konerko currently sits at 422 career homers, needing only 78 more to join the elusive club. To accomplish that feat, Konerko would need to average a very-doable 26 home runs a year. Considering how much Konerko has meant to the White Sox, it would be a special moment for him, the fans, and the organization to see him reach that milestone in a Sox uniform. As a lifelong fan of Konerko and the White Sox, I would thoroughly enjoy that. I am still disappointed on how Frank Thomas’ White Sox career ended with Kenny Williams as GM, and would love to see the Sox handle Konerko’s situation differently. Seeing Thomas finish his career in another uniform, and hit his 500th home run as a Toronto Blue Jay just didn’t seem right. Hopefully, the White Sox won’t allow that to happen to another south side legend. Konerko will undoubtedly have his number 14 retired and statue erected at U.S. Cellular Field when his career is over. It would only be fitting to see that career end in Chicago.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07