Friday, October 17, 2014

Week 7 Preview: Notre Dame vs. Florida State

College Football’s biggest game of the weekend and arguably the season will take place tomorrow night when the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame (6-0, 5th ranked) head down to Tallahassee to take on the defending champion Florida State Seminoles (6-0, 2nd ranked). This game serves as essentially a playoff game as both programs might not be able to withstand losing one game and still make the playoffs. While both teams are undefeated, I would argue that neither team has played their best football yet. Which team will put it all together for one night and make a statement with a big victory?

The Irish offense starts and ends with Everett Golson. While Golson has been tremendous through six games this season with 1,683 yards passing, 209 yards rushing, and 20 total touchdowns, he has also turned the ball over nine times in the last three games. Obviously, Notre Dame will not beat Florida State if Golson turns the ball over three times, so that is a big key to the game. However, I don’t think Golson will have to be flawless to pull out a victory because Florida State has had their own issues with turnovers as well with a margin of -1 that ranks 77th in the country. That is important to note because while Golson has been careless with the ball at times, the last thing he needs to do is be conservative. If Notre Dame is going to win this game, Golson will have to be aggressive and take chances by trying to fit the ball in some tight windows and pick up some key yardage with his legs. Although Golson is the leader of this offense, he also has some help. Wide receiver Will Fuller has had a breakout season so far with 504 yards receiving and seven touchdowns on 35 catches. Fuller has emerged as both a deep threat and a guy that can make a play with the ball in his hands after a short pass, and I don’t think there is a defensive back in the country that can cover him one-on-one. As great as the Irish passing game has been, the rushing attack has been sluggish at times. Last week, Notre Dame had their best day on the ground since the opener versus Rice by rushing for 219 yards. Contrary to what people might think, Florida State’s run defense hasn’t been great this season. The Seminoles are ranked a mediocre 53rd in country by allowing 144.8 yards per game, so look for Brian Kelly to try to run the ball early and often to control the clock and set up some play action passes for later in the game.

Notre Dame’s defense looked terrible at times last week, but they made enough plays to win the game. Simply put, the Irish can’t be as sloppy and confused as they were last week against this Florida State offense. The Seminoles are led by their Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Jameis Winston and wide receiver Rashad Greene. Winston has thrown for 1,605 yards and 11 touchdowns while completing an impressive 70 percent of his passes, but he has also thrown five interceptions in five games. Winston favorite target is the aforementioned Greene, who has 683 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 44 catches. Notre Dame will have to double cover Greene or bracket him on certain passing downs to force Winston to throw the ball to somebody else. The Seminoles also have a good rushing attack, but they will be without sophomore Mario Pender who has averaged 6.3 yards a carry. Therefore, Florida State will rely heavily on Karlos Williams and Dalvin Cook. Williams, a senior, is the more notable back that missed last week with injury, but he still has 353 yards and five touchdowns in five games. With Williams out last week, Cook had a breakout performance with 122 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. Those two backs will likely have their hands full against a Notre Dame rushing defense that ranks 18th in the nation with 110.5 yards allowed per game. In my opinion, the Irish will win this game if they can pressure Winston without overload blitzing. Defensive Coordinator Brian VanGorder needs to show Winston numerous different looks by disguising where the blitz is coming from and changing coverage schemes. If Notre Dame can put pressure on Winston with just four or five rushers, then I think they will force him to make some mistakes and allow the Irish to make a big play on defense.

Before the season started, I had this game penciled as the only automatic loss on the schedule, but that’s changed a little bit. I do not think that Florida State is as good as they were last year, and I believe that Notre Dame is a little better than I thought they would be back in August. Having said that, I still think the Seminoles are slightly better than the Irish and will have an advantage playing at home. This game will be very close and it could come down to the final possession which would leave the door barely open for the loser to remain in playoff contention.

When I started doing these predictions I told myself I would be objective no matter what, so…Florida State wins, but I hope that I am wrong!

Prediction: Florida State 30, Notre Dame 27


Twitter: @etichel07

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