Week 5 Preview: Notre Dame vs. Stanford

With no disrespect to the first four opponents, Notre Dame (4-0, 9^th ranked) will get their toughest test of the young season when Stanford (3-1, 14^th ranked) visits South Bend tomorrow afternoon. This game marks the first of four major hurdles that stand in the way of Notre Dame’s path to the playoffs. Make no mistake about it, the Irish must play a much cleaner game if they want to get past the Cardinal in what should be a close contest.

Notre Dame’s biggest advantage over Stanford is the explosive nature of their offense led by Everett Golson. Minus the turnovers last weekend, Golson has been spectacular this season, but he will face the nation’s top passing defense, total defense, and scoring defense. Stanford is allowing just 74 passing yards per game, 198 total yards per game, and 6.5 points per game. As good as the Cardinal has been defensively, I think it is safe to say that the Irish offense will far exceed those averages. It is no secret that Brian Kelly wants to get the running game going, but I don’t think Notre Dame can pound the ball consistently against Stanford’s stout defense. If Notre Dame is going to win this game, they will have to execute the screen passes like they did last week, then hit Stanford’s secondary hard with the vertical passing game. Brian Kelly might be conservative early on to settle his offense in, but I expect to see many deep passes to Will Fuller, Corey Robinson, and company. I think Notre Dame has a distinct advantage with the speed, height, and athleticism that their receiving corps possesses and they need to try to prove that often. If Notre Dame wins this game, it will be because they connected on several passes of 20 yards or more.

Stanford’s defense deserves all the hype they have received, but don’t overlook Notre Dame’s defensive unit either. The Irish rank 4^th in scoring defense at 11.5 points per game, and have excelled by allowing their opponents to reach the red zone only nine times in four games. Furthermore, the Irish have done a good job keeping their opponents off the board by allowing just six scores in those nine occasions. On the other hand, Stanford has had problems of their own when they have entered into the red zone. The Cardinal has only scored on 12 of their 19 red zone appearances that ranks them 118^th in the country. A big key to this game will be whether or not Stanford can improve on that mark and get the ball in the end zone. When Stanford does get into the red zone, Notre Dame’s biggest concern will be wide receiver Ty Montgomery. Montgomery caught ten touchdowns last season and already has three scores this season. Everyone knows that Stanford loves to run the ball, but Montgomery is probably their best player on offense, so the Irish need to double cover him in certain situations. One thing to watch will be how aggressive defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder is with his game plan. Notre Dame has faced several mobile quarterbacks this season which has hampered their ability to blitz as much as they would like. While Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan is an underrated athlete and can pick up some yards with his legs, look for VanGorder to dial up plenty of blitzes to keep Hogan off balance and force some bad throws. Turnovers and big plays will be decisive in any close game, so the Irish need to pressure Hogan to try to get an edge in those areas.

This game will be a dog fight like always, but the difference between Notre Dame’s offense and Stanford’s offense is greater than the two defensive units. Notre Dame will make enough big plays to pull off a close win.

Prediction: Notre Dame 20, Stanford 16

Twitter: @etichel07