Who will advance to Championship Sunday?
NFC Divisional
(1) Seattle Seahawks
31, (6) New Orleans Saints 20
The Seahawks stomped the Saints 34-7 back in Week 13, but I
expect this one to be a little closer. The Saints will be riding the momentum
from last weeks’ victory over the Eagles, and Sean Payton is too good of a
coach to allow his team to struggle offensively again. Look for Payton to make
adjustments and try to get the ball out of Drew Brees’ hands as quickly as
possible.
The Seahawks will likely lean heavily on Marshawn Lynch and
he should have a huge day. The Saints bottled up Lynch in Week 13 (45 yards on
16 carries), but he seems to be a different runner in the playoffs. Russell
Wilson has played exceptionally well this season, and he should get a boost
with the return of Percy Harvin. However, the Saints own the 2nd
best pass defense in the NFL by allowing just 194.1 yards per game. The Saints
won’t be able to keep Wilson below 200 yards passing, as the second-year
quarterback makes enough plays with his arm and legs to earn an impressive
victory.
AFC Divisional
(2) New England
Patriots 38, (4) Indianapolis Colts 34
Last week, Andrew Luck had to pull off a miraculous comeback
all by himself as the second-year signal caller threw for 443 yards and four
touchdowns. Most of that damage went to wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (13
receptions for 224 yards and 2 TDs), but I wouldn’t expect similar numbers
Saturday night. Bill Belichick will undoubtedly be determined to shutdown
Hilton, so I imagine the Patriots defensive gameplan will be centered on
disrupting Hilton’s routes. If the Colts are going to win this game, Luck will
have to spread the ball around more effectively.
Despite losing virtually every weapon from last season, the
Patriots have averaged 31.7 points per game over the last 11 weeks. Tom Brady
has learned to work with what he has, and he has turned Julian Edelman (105
receptions for 1,056 yards and 6 TDs) into the new Wes Welker. Although the
Patriots have a potent passing attack (10th ranked, 255.4 yards per
game), their rushing game actually ranks better at 9th overall with
129.1 yards per game. That rushing attack has been primarily led by Stevan
Ridley and LeGarrette Blount who have combined to rush for 1,545 and 14 touchdowns,
so the duo should fair quite well against the Colts’ 26th ranked run
defense. Look for New England’s balanced offense to be the difference in this
matchup.
NFC Divisional
(5) San Francisco 49ers
17, (2) Carolina Panthers 16
In November’s 10-9 victory, the Carolina Panthers’ defense
was suffocating against San Francisco’s offense and held the 49ers to just 151
yards of total offense. How will Colin Kaepernick and company be able to move
the ball against this stout defense? For starters, wide receiver Michael
Crabtree did not play in week 10, but he could be a big factor in this game.
Crabtree caught 8 balls for 125 yards last weekend versus the Green Bay
Packers, and Kaepernick will likely be targeting him very often on Sunday as
well. Besides the passing game, I expect Kaepernick to be much more active with
his legs in this game. In Week 10, Kaepernick carried the ball just four times
for 16 yards, but he had a ton of success last week with 98 yards on 7 carries.
If San Francisco is going to win this game, Kaepernick will need to make plays
with his legs to ensure the 49ers have a balanced attack.
Despite winning in Week 10, Carolina’s offense did not have
much success against San Francisco’s defense. The Panthers only gained 250
yards on the afternoon, and they will need to be better than that if they want
to win on Sunday. Just like the 49ers, the Panthers love to run the ball as they
rank 11th in the league with 126.6 rushing yards per game. Carolina
will likely try to pound the ball with their trio of running backs, but Cam
Newton will need to make plays through the air to win the game. Look for tight
end Greg Olsen to be a bigger factor on Sunday after catching just one pass for
14 yards in Week 10. If Olsen can stretch the 49ers’ defense down the middle,
Steve Smith could have a big impact on the edge.
AFC Divisional
(1) Denver Broncos 34,
(6) San Diego Chargers 27
Peyton Manning has had his share of struggles in the
postseason, but he should play exceptionally well on Sunday. Wes Welker is back
after sitting out the final three games with a concussion, and his return
should open things up for Manning. With all the weapons Manning has, I can’t
see the Chargers defense shutting him down as San Diego ranks 29th
against the pass.
The question in this game is whether or not the Broncos’
defense will be able to hold their own against the Chargers’ offense. San Diego
ranks 4th in passing yards and 13th in rushing, so they
feature a balanced attack. Phillip Rivers should play well against the Broncos
as he has his whole career. Rivers owns a 96.6 quarterback rating in 17 games
against Denver, and is 6-2 lifetime in Denver. Besides Rivers, running back
Ryan Matthews will need to have a big day if San Diego is going to win.
Matthews has rushed for 1,255 yards this season, and he will have to eclipse
100 yards to keep the ball out of Manning’s hands. If San Diego can control the
ball, they could have a shot at pulling off the upset.
-Eric Tichelbaut
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