Championship Sunday Preview

Championship Sunday is just two days away, so let’s take a look at the games. The AFC Championship kicks off the action with the latest installment of Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. Now, I understand that the two don’t actually face-off against each other, but the storyline of having the two greatest quarterbacks of my era squaring off is something I’m always excited to watch. After that fun is over, the NFC Championship caps off the night by featuring two divisional rivals led by head coaches that simply do not like each other. With that being said, this Sunday figures to be seven hours of entertaining football that is sure to guarantee a great Super Bowl XLVIII matchup.

AFC Championship

(1) Denver Broncos vs. (2) New England Patriots

Although this game features two of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time, I think the running backs of each team will be the difference in the game. We all know that each quarterback will make some big-time throws on Sunday, but both teams need to be balanced on offense in order to advance to New York in two weeks.

New England unleashed their ground attack last week versus the Indianapolis Colts when LeGarrette Blount’s 166 yards and four touchdowns led the Patriots to 234 yards on 46 carries. While I don’t expect Blount to have the same success this week, Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen should help the Patriots run effectively against this Broncos defense. Denver does rank 8^th against the run at 101.6 yards per game, but that is almost entirely due to their opponents having to play from behind. Bill Belichick knows that the Patriots will have to keep the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands to win the game, so expect New England to try to reach 200 yards rushing once again.

Peyton Manning loves to throw the ball, but he is also smart enough to lean on the running game when it is needed as he did last weekend. The Patriots have a lousy run defense that ranks 30^th in the NFL at 134.1 yards per game. As bad as that number may look, it is even worse when remembering that the Patriots won 12 games this season because that would suggest that teams were throwing the ball when attempting to make a comeback. In any event, the Broncos should be able to run the ball with Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball leading the way. The duo combined for 134 yards on 33 carries, and they will have to be just as effective if the Broncos are going to win on Sunday. New England does have a below average pass defense that ranks 18^th at 239 yards per game, but you can bet that Bill Belichick will devise a scheme to disrupt Manning’s rhythm. Manning should play well with all the weapons he has, but I don’t think he will eclipse 300 yards passing in this game.

Part of me wants to pick the Patriots, but I can’t go against my preseason pick.

Prediction: Denver Broncos 27, New England Patriots 24

NFC Championship

(1) Seattle Seahawks vs. (5) San Francisco 49ers

The Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers may hate each other, but they could not be any more similar in their style of play. Both teams know that their opponent loves to lean heavily on their defense and running game, so that is why I believe the quarterback play of each team will determine the outcome of the game.

Seattle’s passing offense has been downright anemic the last five weeks (averaging 157.6 passing yards per game), so Russell Wilson will have to step-up his game against a tough 49ers’ defense. San Francisco’s great defense is fueled by a 7^th ranked pass defense (221 yards per game) and a 4^th ranked rushing defense (95.9 yards per game). The 49ers’ stout run defense is led by a dynamic set of linebackers, meaning Marshawn Lynch may have trouble finding running room. If that is the case, Wilson will have to make plays with his legs and arm to win the game. With Percy Harvin sidelined with a concussion, Wilson will have to rely on Golden Tate and Zach Miller to make plays in the passing game. Since San Francisco’s defense figures to give the Seahawks fits all afternoon, Seattle’s defense or special teams unit may have to score a touchdown to come away with a victory.

San Francisco has been on quite a run lately by winning their last eight games, with four out of the last five coming on the road. If the 49ers are going to advance to the Super Bowl, they will have to find a way to move the ball against the best defense in the NFL. The Seahawks own the best passing defense at 172 yards per game, but they also defend the run very well by allowing just 101.6 yards per game. I don’t expect Frank Gore and company to run the ball efficiently against the 7^th ranked run defense, leaving Colin Kaepernick having to be a difference maker. If Kaepernick can make some plays on the edge of this defense with his legs, he could open up the middle of the field for Gore to pound the ball. In addition to Kaepernick’s running game, he will have to get the ball into the hands of Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis down the field. While both of those players present matchup problems for the rest of the NFL, Seattle’s secondary might be good enough to keep them in-check. And, at home, I like Seattle’s chances defensively.

Like the AFC Championship, this game is a coin flip. But, I’ve been picking Seattle and Denver all season.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks 20, San Francisco 49ers 17

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07