Tomorrow night, the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame (4-2)
welcome their bitter rivals, the Southern California Trojans (4-2) to South
Bend. For many Irish fans, the yearly matchup against the Trojans is the
highlight of the season, and I would agree. Games against Michigan State,
Michigan, Purdue, and Boston College are nice, but USC is our rival.
But, over the last decade-plus, the Irish have struggled to
even keep it close versus USC, losing eight straight contests in the series
from 2002 to 2009. However, under Brian Kelly, Notre Dame has turned things
around winning two out of the last three games. Kelly and the Irish will be
looking to win tomorrow night to keep their slim BCS Bowl chances alive. If the
Irish were to come out on top, it would be their first home victory versus USC
since 2001.
USC comes to town hoping to get their season back on track.
After a 62-41 loss to Arizona State on September 28th, USC fired
head coach Lane Kiffin and promoted defensive line coach Ed Orgeron to interim
head coach. Last Thursday, the Trojans’ players responded by defeating the
Arizona Wildcats 38-31 to give Orgeron a win in his debut.
Offensively, Notre Dame needs to focus on trying to sustain
the balance they had two weeks ago against Arizona State. In that game, the
Irish had 424 yards of total offense (279 passing, 145 rushing) on 75 plays (38
passes, 37 rushes). If Notre Dame can come anywhere close to those numbers,
then they should be able to put enough points on the board to come away with a
win. If the Irish are forced to lean in any one direction, they would be better
off trying to run the ball. USC still has talented players on both sides of the
ball, but the one thing they lack is depth due to scholarship reductions. Because
of that, the Irish should be the more physical team in the trenches and wear
down the Trojan defense (quite like what we saw last season in Southern
California). If that is the case, look for the Irish backs to hammer away at
the Trojan front seven. If for some reason the run does not work or Notre Dame
is forced to abandon the run due to a large deficit, then the Irish could be in
trouble. In two starts versus USC, Tommy Rees has played poorly. In 69 pass
attempts, Rees completed 43 passes (62.3%) for only 339 yards, two touchdowns,
and four interceptions. Although Rees had struggled, he can still have an
efficient night of passing if the Irish stick to their game plan. Just like the
Arizona State game, the Irish need to establish a running game to take pressure
off of Rees and force the USC secondary to play close to the line. Once that
occurs, Notre Dame should be able to dial up a few play-action pass plays and
take advantage of their talented receivers to pick up some big gains in the
passing game.
Defensively, Notre Dame might not know what to expect from
the Trojans. USC is coming off of consecutive weeks of explosive offense by
putting up a combined 72 points against Arizona State and Arizona. While those
scoring outputs are impressive, this is also the same USC team that put up 7
and 17 points respectively against Washington State and Utah State. So which
offense will the Irish see tomorrow night? I would guess somewhere in between. Sophomore
quarterback Cody Kessler has had a solid season and has really come on over the
last four games. In those four contests, Kessler has completed 61.8% of his
passes for 993 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. Part of Kessler’s
success is because of his top two receivers, Marqise Lee and Nelson Agholor. The
talented duo has combined for 738 yards and three touchdowns on 48 catches. I’d
be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about Lee and Agholor burning the Irish
secondary for a few big plays. The key will be limiting those big plays by
tackling them as soon as the catch the ball. In addition to having playmakers
in the passing game, USC also has two great runners in the backfield. Sophomore
Tre Madden is off to a fast start with 611 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
Madden was a workhorse during the first five games of the season, but he is
doubtful for tomorrow’s game. Regardless if Madden can go or not, former Penn
State running back and senior Silas Redd figures to have a much more prominent
role in the running game after returning from a torn meniscus that he suffered
in the spring. Last week, Redd racked up 80 yards on 19 carries during his
first week back. I expect the Irish defense to play well against the run and
keep Redd and the other USC backs in-check, but I’m still worried about the
passing game. Notre Dame’s secondary has been a weak spot all season, but the
Irish front seven can help them out immensely if they pressure Cody Kessler.
Notre Dame came on strong last week and had five sacks, doubling their season
total. If Prince Shembo, Stephon Tuitt, and the rest of the Irish front seven
can create pressure, look for Notre Dame defense to force a couple of
turnovers. In a rivalry game like this, turnovers can be the difference.
I expect Notre Dame to build on their performance from last
week and prove that they are the better team on both sides of the ball. USC
will keep it close because they have plenty of playmakers on offense, but I believe
the Irish offense will score enough points to win.
Prediction: Notre
Dame 31, USC 23
-Eric Tichelbaut
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