1. Chris Sale, 24 (Opening Day age), LHP
After coming off of a breakout year in 2012, Sale will begin 2013 as the White Sox’ “ace” and Opening Day starter. The White Sox rewarded Sale for his efforts and signed him to a five-year; $32.5 million extension through the 2017 season. In all, it was smart move for both sides considering the amount of money and years guaranteed to the talented lefty. Last season, the White Sox were careful with Sale’s arm and monitored his innings by skipping some of his starts throughout the year. This year, the White Sox should be willing to let Sale go. After throwing 192 innings last season, Sale should have no trouble surpassing the 200 inning plateau that is often thought as a requirement to be considered an “ace”. That of course assumes that Sale remains healthy and on the mound for 30+ starts. If he is, expect more of the same from last year.
2012 Stats: 29 GS|17 W|8 L|192.0 IP|192 K|3.05 ERA|1.14 WHIP
2013 Projection: 32 GS|16 W|9 L|210.0 IP|205 K|3.31 ERA|1.16 WHIP
2. Jake Peavy, 31, RHP
In 2012, Peavy was able to pitch for an entire season for the first time since his CY Young award winning campaign in 2007. After undergoing career-threatening surgery on a torn latissimus dorsi tendon in 2010, Peavy responded with an impressive performance last season. Although he only won 11 games, Peavy’s other numbers and ratios suggest that he was a much better pitcher than his win-loss record would indicate. Peavy appeared on track to possibly win a CY Young during the first half of the season with a sparkling 2.85 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Unfortunately, his second half was not as effective with a 4.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP after the All-Star break. Since Peavy had not made more than 19 starts in a season since 2008, and was likely still recovering from the surgery, his numbers probably suffered due to fatigue from the long season. Hopefully, Peavy can put two solid halves together and fully return to the CY Young caliber pitcher he is capable of being.
2012 Stats: 32 GS|11 W|12 L|219.0 IP|194 K|3.37 ERA|1.10 WHIP
2013 Projection: 32 GS|17 W|9 L| 215.0 IP| 191 K|3.22 ERA|1.14 WHIP
3. Gavin Floyd, 30, RHP
Floyd will begin the 2013 season in the final year of his current contract, and it will likely be his last season in a White Sox uniform. At 30 years old, the White Sox will likely let Floyd go into free-agency where he will command more money than the Sox are willing to commit to him. Since Floyd is entering a “contract-year”, many people may think that he will have big year. However, I don’t think that will be the case. At this stage of his career, the White Sox know what kind of pitcher they have in Floyd. Floyd has made at least 29 starts the last five seasons and holds a career record of 70-66. In addition, Floyd’s career ERA (4.46) and WHIP (1.33) suggest that he is just an average major league pitcher. I would be very surprised if Floyd’s numbers in 2013 weren’t right around his career averages.
2012 Stats: 29 GS|12 W|11 L|168.0 IP|144 K|4.29 ERA|1.36 WHIP
2013 Projection: 31 GS| 11 W| 12 L| 184.0 IP|161 K|4.37 ERA|1.32 WHIP
4. Jose Quintana, 24, LHP
In 2012, Quintana really came out of nowhere to have a very nice year. When Quintana got a shot to start in May, he produced all-star caliber numbers in the first half of the season. After his first 8 starts, Quintana had an outstanding 2.04 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Since Quintana was acquired off of waivers from the New York Yankees, these numbers seemed too good to be true. Unfortunately, they were. After the all-star break, Quintana really struggled. The lefty made 14 starts and had a poor 5.01 ERA and even worse 1.62 WHIP. I don’t think that Quintana is either the pitcher that we saw in the first half or the second half. Given that, I would expect Quintana’s numbers to fall somewhere in the middle of the two, probably closer to his second half performance.
2012 Stats: 22 GS|6 W|6 L|136.1 IP|81 K|3.76 ERA|1.35 WHIP
2013 Projection: 30 GS|10 W|13 L|178.0 IP|125 K|4.41 ERA| 1.37 WHIP
5. John Danks, 27, LHP
Danks is coming off of a nightmare 2012 campaign. The lefty really struggled out of the gate, and his last start of the season was on May 19th. Ultimately, Danks’ season ended on August 6th when he underwent shoulder surgery. Danks is currently on the road to recovery and will begin the season on the disabled list while he tries to build-up arm strength. Danks is eligible to come off of the DL on April 6th, but that would be highly optimistic. It remains to be seen when Danks will actually return to the mound, but I would guess it would be closer to May 1st. There is no reason for the White Sox to rush things, and they would prefer to have Danks from May through September, rather than having to put him back on the DL later in the year. In the meantime, Dylan Axelrod will take Danks’ spot in the rotation until he is ready to return to the mound. If Danks is fully healthy when he returns, then I would expect his numbers to be closer to his career averages of a 4.12 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
2012 Stats: 9 GS|3 W|4 L|53.2 IP|30 K|5.70 ERA|1.49 WHIP
2013 Projection: 26 GS|9 W|9 L|156.0 IP|121 K|4.19 ERA|1.33 WHIP
Addison Reed, 24, RHP
The White Sox selected Reed out of San Diego State in the third round of the 2010 first-year player draft with intentions of him being their future closer. In 2012, Reed recorded his first major league save on May 5th, and he was the White Sox closer for the remainder of the season. Reed finished the year converting 29 of his 33 save opportunities, despite having a less than ideal 4.75 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. However, Reed’s 54 strikeouts in 55 innings suggest that he has the swing-and-miss type stuff that is usually required for a closer. The White Sox certainly hope his numbers improve, but ultimately all that matters is that Reed is closing out wins at a successful rate. Given that it was Reed’s first full season in the big leagues and his first season as a closer, I would expect his numbers to improve in his second season. If that is the case, then expect Reed to establish himself as one of the better closers in the American League.
2012 Stats: 62 G|3 W|2 L|29 SV|55.0 IP|54 K|4.75 ERA|1.36 WHIP
2013 Projection: 68 G|3 W|3 L|36 SV|62.0 IP|71 K|3.55 ERA|1.19 WHIP
Rest of the Pitching Staff:
Dylan Axelrod, 27, RHP: Axelrod will begin the season as the fifth starter until John Danks is ready. Axelrod has a 3.21 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this spring with 12 strikeouts in 14 innings. He should do fine as a fill-in, but hopefully he won’t have to start too many games. Axelrod will likely return to the minors once Danks is healthy.
Hector Santiago, 25, LHP: In 2012, Santiago pitched in just about every role imaginable. He flopped as a closer, but found his niche as a long-reliever and even a spot-starter. Santiago owned a 3.33 ERA with 79 strikeouts in 70.1 innings. With his versatility, Santiago should be a valuable member of the White Sox pitching staff.
Donnie Veal, 28, LHP: Veal was flat-out dominant in his brief time with the team last season. After not pitching in the major leagues since 2009, Veal appeared in 24 games for the White Sox. Veal served as a lefty-specialist and pitched 13 innings, while striking out 19 batters. That ratio, coupled with a 1.38 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and .111 BAA should come in handy versus many of the left-handed hitters in the American League Central.
Matt Lindstrom, 33, RHP: The White Sox signed Lindstrom in the offseason after he spent last season in Baltimore and Arizona. Lindstrom brings some experience and depth to the bullpen that it seriously lacked last season. Lindstrom has some experience closing games, but he is better served as a 7th inning guy. Lindstrom finished 2012 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
Nate Jones, 27, RHP: In 2012, Jones made his major league debut and did not disappoint. Jones managed an 8-0 record as a reliever, but don’t expect that to happen again as wins for a reliever are extremely fluky. More importantly, Jones struck out 65 batters in 71.2 innings and had a 2.39 ERA. Jones’ WHIP was a bit high at 1.38, but that should come down a little as his control improves with more experience.
Jesse Crain, 31, RHP: Crain’s status for Opening Day was in question after suffering a strained adductor (hip) this spring, but he appears on track for Monday. Crain is coming off of a very impressive 2012 campaign, and should be very solid once again. Crain finished 2012 with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, while striking out 60 batters in 48 innings. Crain figures to be one of the White Sox most reliable relievers and could step into the closers’ role should Addison Reed struggle.
Matt Thornton, 36, LHP: Gone are the days when Thornton was arguably the best left-handed setup man in baseball. From 2008 to 2010, Thornton struck out 245 batters in only 200.1 innings pitched. Also, over that time frame, Thornton’s ERA was between 2.67-2.74 and his WHIP was between 1.00-1.08. Although Thornton will no longer produce those types of numbers, he still remains a very effective reliever. Expect Thornton to put up numbers close to last year and his career averages of a 3.51 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.
-Eric Tichelbaut
Follow me on Twitter @etichel07
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