When Notre Dame (7-1, 10th ranked) travels to
Tempe to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils (7-1, 9th), it is
essentially an elimination game. Both programs would have to win out and need
some help to make the playoffs, but the loser is definitely out of contention
for one of the final four spots. Last season, the Fighting Irish defeated the
Sun Devils 37-34 in the Shamrock Series, but who will prevail tomorrow afternoon?
Notre Dame’s offense has been one of the better units in the
country by averaging 35.4 points per game (30th ranked) and gaining
458.3 yards per contest (33rd ranked), and they will look to
continue that success against an improving Arizona State defense. The Sun
Devils have allowed 24.1 points per game (50th ranked) and 385.3
yards per contest (58th ranked), but they have not allowed more than
16 points in their last three games. While the Sun Devils’ defense is trending
upwards, they have not faced an offense like Notre Dame’s in recent weeks.
Everett Golson has been responsible for the majority of Notre Dame’s scoring
this season, accounting for 29 touchdowns (22 passing and 7 rushing) on 2,311
yards passing and 272 yards rushing. If Notre Dame is going to win this game,
Golson will have to shine once again while also limiting his turnovers to zero
or one. In what figures to be an offensive game, the Irish must score on most
of their possessions and they can’t help the Sun Devils out by giving them a
short field. Although Golson should play well, the key to this game could be
the running game led by Tarean Folston. Arizona State has struggled against the
run by allowing 180.9 yards per game, which places them 88th in the
country. In addition, Folston has been on quite a roll lately by rushing for
367 yards in the past three games, so I expect him to have another big game by
easily eclipsing the 100-yard rushing plateau for the third consecutive week.
If that happens, the Irish have a great chance at winning this game.
The Irish suffered a huge blow by losing their linebacker
and defensive leader in Joe Schmidt last week. Schmidt is out for the season after
dislocating and fracturing his ankle, so Notre Dame will need to move on quickly.
True freshman Nyles Morgan will start and take over the play calling duties on
defense, so we’ll find out real quickly how he and the Irish will respond to
the loss of Schmidt. There is no doubt that Morgan has the talent considering
he was a “blue-chip” recruit, but his discipline, knowledge, and maturity will
no doubt be tested tomorrow. I expect Morgan to play well, but the pre-snap
alignment for the entire defense might be a step behind if the Sun Devils play
up-tempo offensively. Notre Dame’s defense got off to a great start to the
season, but they have struggled mightily during the past three weeks by
surrendering a combined 113 points.
Despite the recent struggles, Brian VanGorder’s defense still ranks 29th
in scoring defense at 21.6 points per game and 40th in total defense
by allowing 359.1 yards per contest. Arizona State possesses a balanced attack
offensively by averaging 291.1 yards passing and 192.5 yards rushing per game
which has led to a scoring average of 34.4 points per game. The Sun Devils are
led by quarterback Taylor Kelly, running back D.J. Foster, and wide receiver Jaelen
Strong. Kelly missed three games due to injury, but the senior has played well
this season by passing for 1,010 yards and rushing for 230 yards, while
accounting for 11 touchdowns (nine passing and two rushing). I think that
VanGorder needs to dial up the blitz early and often to force Kelly to make
early throws and to see how well his healing right foot responds to the
pressure. Another reason to bring the blitz is to limit the amount of time the
Irish secondary needs to cover Jaelen Strong. Strong is one of the top receivers
in the country and he poses serious matchup problems with his 6-3, 212 pound
frame and explosive speed. Strong has had a fantastic season so far with 821
yards and eight touchdowns on 57 catches, so limiting his big play potential
will be another key for the Irish. If worrying about Strong wasn’t enough,
Notre Dame also will need to focus on stopping D.J. Foster. The junior running
back has 1,153 yards of total offense with 701 yards rushing and 452 yards
passing, so shutting him down completely will be a difficult task. Notre Dame’s
rushing defense has been great all season, but last week’s contest against the
run-heavy Navy Midshipmen has dropped the Irish to 31st in the
nation by allowing an average on 131.9 yards per game. Based on their success
the first seven games, I think that the Irish have a great shot of holding
Foster to under 100 yards, and they might have to in order to win this game.
Arizona State will likely need to match Notre Dame score-for-score, and it
appears they have the talent to do so.
This game should be a shootout, but I think Everett Golson
will prove to be the difference. Golson has an ability to make plays in the
clutch and he has thrived in big-game situations.
Prediction: Notre
Dame 38, Arizona State 34
Twitter: @etichel07
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