Friday, April 26, 2013

Rios Proving that 2012 was No Fluke

Following a career-year in 2012, Alex Rios is one of the only White Sox regulars off to a good start in April. With his hot start, Rios is looking to reverse his trend of failing to put together back-to-back good seasons in a White Sox uniform.

To illustrate this point, let’s examine Rios’ statistics over the last several years.

As a Toronto Blue Jay:

2008 - .291 AVG|15 HR|79 RBI|91 R|32 SB

As a Toronto Blue Jay and Chicago White Sox:

2009 - .247 AVG|17 HR|71 RBI|63 R|24 SB

As a Chicago White Sox:

2010 - .284 AVG|21 HR|88 RBI|89 R|34 SB
2011 - .227 AVG|13 HR|44 RBI|64 R|11 SB
2012 - .304 AVG|25 HR|91 RBI|93 R|23 SB

In 2008, Rios had a fine season with the Blue Jays by showcasing his five-tool potential. In 2009, Rios was not as effective, leading the Blue Jays to place him on waivers following the July 31st trading deadline. That August, former general manager Kenny Williams put in a claim for the struggling outfielder. During that season, the White Sox were in a divisional race with the Detroit Tigers, and many baseball experts believed that Williams had put the claim on Rios solely to block the Tigers from acquiring Rios. Since the White Sox were awarded the claim, the thought was that the Blue Jays and White Sox would try to work out a trade given Rios’ talent. If that was the case, Williams would have likely exercised his option of rejecting a trade offer, thus not acquiring Rios or his large contract. However, the Blue Jays opted to simply “give away” the rights and contract of Rios to the White Sox, leaving the Sox to pick up the remaining tab of at least $61.6 million. If the White Sox pick-up the 2015 option, the deal would spill to just over $75 million.

So, as you can see, Kenny Williams took a huge risk when he put in a waiver claim for Rios. Whether or not he intended to “block” the Tigers will never be proven, but regardless of what happened, the White Sox did end up with a quality player.

I say ended up, because the outlook on Rios was very bleak during his short stint on the South Side in 2009. In 41 games, Rios hit a putrid .199, with 3 HR, 9 RBI, 11 R, and 5 SB. Those numbers don’t really reflect the production that you would expect from a $10-12 million dollar outfielder, so naturally White Sox fans were not pleased with their new player. Rios was showered with boos for the rest of the year, and he looked like a total bust.

In 2010, things would quickly change. Rios rebounded to hit .284, with 21 HR, 88 RBI, 89 R, and 34 SB. I will be the first to admit that I was not happy with Rios in 2009, but he quickly became one of my favorite players on the team during his first full season in a White Sox uniform. With the solid season under his belt, Rios was starting to look like a potential steal for Kenny Williams.

In 2011, Rios fell flat on his face. He hit just .227, with 13 HR, 44 RBI, 64 R, and 11 SB. As expected, most White Sox fans got on his case again. Maybe I was putting too much stock into his 2010 season, but I was hopeful that he could have a bounce-back campaign in 2012. That would prove to be the case, as Rios had arguably the best year of his career last season.

In 2012, Rios hit .304, with 25 HR, 91 RBI, 93 R, and 23 SB. The numbers that Rios posted in both 2010 and 2012 were the type of production that the White Sox thought they were getting when they acquire Rios.

Much of Rios’ success in 2012 should be attributed to a change in his approach to the plate. In 2012, Rios changed his batting stance to a more “up-right” position as opposed to hitting from a “crouch”. This has allowed for Rios to have less movement in his body as he prepares to swing, and it has also allowed him to use his 6 foot 5 inch frame to the fullest potential. By standing tall, Rios is able to extend his arms when he swings, thus generating more power and back-spin on the baseball. All of that has led to a slight up-tick in power and a higher batting average due to a more consistent and level swing.

With two poor seasons in 2009 and 2011, followed by two very solid seasons in 2010 and 2012, many White Sox fans were left wondering what to expect from Rios heading into the 2013 season. If people had any doubts on whether or not Rios could repeat his performance from last season, then those concerns should now be gone. Rios has silenced any remaining critics by batting .303 with 6 HR, 11 RBI, 12 R, and 3 SB. To put those numbers into context, Rios is on-pace to hit .303 with 46 HR, 84 RBI, 92 R, and 23 SB. Now, obviously the home run pace will not continue, but his batting average, run production, and stolen bases are right in line with his potential upside. Given that, the White Sox should be very pleased with how the wavier claim on Rios turned out. After an ugly start to the Rios era in 2009, and a poor 2011, Rios has firmly established himself as the best all-around player on the White Sox roster, as well as being one of the better outfielders in the American League.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07

Saturday, April 20, 2013

DH or No DH, Rules Should be the Same in Both Leagues

With the Houston Astros moving to the American League this season, interleague play has been implemented nearly every day of the year. Since there are now 15 teams in each league, at least one interleague series must be played to allow all 30 teams to play. This change in interleague format has once again brought up the issue of whether or not the designated hitter rules should change. In my opinion, it should change sooner than later.

What should be the change?

Well, there are three options.

Option 1: Keep the rules the way they are with the DH in the American League and let pitchers bat in the National League. It seems to be a fair compromise, but it is severely flawed. To me it is ridiculous that the American and National League’s play under separate rules. This does not happen in any other major sport. With interleague play being year round and the likelihood of increased amount of interleague games being played, this option seems to be in jeopardy.

Option 2: Eliminate the DH. Baseball “traditionalists” have long argued that the DH ruins the strategy of baseball and hurts the game. While I am a White Sox fan and should be a fan of the American League, I enjoy watching National League games more than watching American League games. Now I don’t really enjoy watching a pitcher hit, but I prefer low-scoring games and pitchers’ duels more than slugfests. That being said, I would not have a problem with eliminating the DH. So, I am on board with this option and it would make traditionalists happy, but I just don’t see it happening.

Option 3: Implement the DH in both leagues. This might be the least popular option with the true baseball fans, but it is the most logical and likely scenario. As I stated above, I do not see the DH being eliminated and here’s why. There are too many jobs added by the DH, and the MLB Players Association will never approve the elimination of the DH. Eliminating the DH would result in 15 jobs being lost. By implementing the DH in both leagues, the MLBPA would benefit from adding 15 more jobs and allow many more players to extend their careers.

In the end, I don’t know when a change will occur, but I do think it will happen. It may take 5, 10, 20, or 30 years, but eventually both leagues will be playing under the same set of rules. I believe that baseball would like to increase interleague play to the extent that it is in the NFL, NBA, and NHL. Because of that, it seems impossible for the American and National Leagues to continue to play under separate rules. Based on what I stated above, I believe that option three will prove to emerge in the coming years, making the DH available in both leagues. As a fan, I am not sure that would be the best choice, but it is the most logical. At the very least, it would end what I believe to be is a flawed system in baseball.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07

Five Things to Watch for Notre Dame's 2013 Spring Game and Season

With the Notre Dame Blue-Gold annual spring game being played today, it is time to take a look at some of the interesting storylines heading into the 2013 season.

1. Everett Golson’s development

Golson is coming off of an up-and-down 2012 as first-year starter. Golson was brought along slowly in the first half of the season, even being removed in several games for veteran Tommy Rees. It should be noted that Golson was really only taken out of a game due to poor play versus Michigan. Injuries and Rees’ familiarity with running the two-minute offense led to the switches against Purdue and Stanford. Despite the early season bumps, Golson continue to show glimpses of what he can do and that became more evident as the season wore on. While Notre Dame relied heavily on their defense to win many games during the majority of the year, Golson led the Irish to a huge road win at Oklahoma and a comeback overtime victory against Pittsburgh. I don’t think Notre Dame would have won either one of those contests had Rees been the quarterback.

During the BCS National Championship blowout, Golson was one of the few bright spots for the golden domers. He struggled to start the game, but a lot of that may have been due to play calling. However, in the second half, Golson led the Irish to two touchdown drives. Although the game was “over”, Alabama still had all their starters in on defense well into the fourth quarter. The Crimson Tide wanted to post back-to-back shutout in the BCS Championship, but Golson made sure that didn’t happen. Golson completed 21 of 36 pass attempts for 270 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He also added a rushing touchdown on an option play near the goal-line.

Golson developed some chemistry with wide-outs T.J. Jones and Davaris Daniels as the 2012 season progressed. With both receivers returning, the Irish passing attack should flourish during Golson’s second season under center. Look for Brian Kelly to open up the passing game a bit more, as he did in the final four games of the 2012 season, to take advantage of the group’s talent. Golson should also see more designed runs, as he did during the second half of the 2012 season. Brian Kelly knew that he had his quarterback of the future in Golson, but Kelly also wanted to break Golson slowly into the offense. With the training wheels set to come off, Golson and the offense should thrive in 2013.

2. George Atkinson’s increased role, and other RB’s

With running backs Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood departing for the NFL, the Irish have a huge hole to fill at running back. Junior George Atkinson III will enter the 2013 season as the leading option at running back. Atkinson has showed flashes of being a great tailback, but that has mostly come from big plays or during mop-up duty late games. It’ll be interesting to see if Atkinson can handle the rigors of carrying the ball 15 times a game. If he is going to be successful, Atkinson must learn to run between the tackles with more force and less hesitation.

Transfer Amir Carlisle will also see plenty of touches out of the backfield. Carlisle comes from USC after being a four-star recruit and should make an impact this season. At 5-10, 185 lbs, Carlisle may take over the role that Riddick had in 2012. In addition to seeing time at running back, I expect to see Carlisle split out wide and in the slot to give him the ball in space.

Cam McDaniel and Will Mahone should also see some carries. McDaniel was used sparingly last season and mostly when the Irish had the game in-hand. While McDaniel is a nice back, I don’t really see an increased role for him with there being more talented players on the roster. Mahone is coming off of a redshirt season as a freshman. At 5-10, 214lbs, Mahone is stockier type back and should see some carries between the tackles in short yardage situations.

Perhaps the most intriguing player at running back won’t be in South Bend until this summer. Future incoming five-star freshman, Greg Bryant, will join the Irish and should be a difference maker in 2013. It is too early to tell how much playing time Bryant will receive in 2013, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 5-10 carries in the opener versus Temple. As the season progresses, Bryant may become the lead option at running back for the Irish.

3. Who will emerge at TE?

With Tyler Eifert leaving Notre Dame for the NFL, the Irish will have another big hole to fill at tight end. In recent years, Notre Dame has earned the moniker of “Tight End U” with guys like Eifert, Kyle Rudolph, John Carlson, and Anthony Fasano having plenty of success. Junior Troy Niklas is the clear favorite at tight end heading into 2013. Niklas received a lot of playing time in 2012, but he was mostly used as an extra blocker. At 6-7, 259 lbs, Niklas was recruited as an offensive tackle out of high school and he is plus-blocker at tight end, but I was also pleasantly surprised with his athleticism. Niklas only caught five passes for 75 yards and a touchdown, but I wouldn’t worry about his stats since Tyler Eifert was the main option. I’m not sure that Niklas can be utilized quite like Eifert was as a receiver, but he should be a force between the hash-marks and in the red-zone.

Senior Alex Welch, junior Ben Koyack, and freshman Mike Heuerman round out the remaining options at tight end. Welch (1 catch, 8 yards) and Koyack (4 catches, 44 yards) have had disappointing careers at Notre Dame so far, but they now have a chance to get some playing time. They were both four-star recruits coming out of high school, so the talent is there. That being said, I am not overly optimistic on either one becoming a reliable option. Heuerman enrolled early at Notre Dame and should have a jump-start at receiving playing time. At 6-4, 218 lbs, Heuerman has more of a wide receivers body. Obviously, Notre Dame would like him to gain about 25-30 pounds during his career, but it may not be an issue this year. With Troy Niklas expected to handle the bulk of the blocking responsibilities, the Irish may choose to use some two tight end sets and split Heuerman out wide like they did with Eifert. Heuerman possess great ball skills and has a rare knack for out-jumping defenders, something that Eifert was also known for doing.

4. Who will replace Te’o at MLB?

Replacing Manti Te’o will be a difficult task for Notre Dame. Luckily, the Irish have 9 players returning on defense that have started multiple games in their careers. With plenty of experience on the rest of the defense, the Irish should have enough play makers and depth to have a great defense once again. In 2012, Carlo Calabrese and Dan Fox split time at the other inside linebacker position opposite to Te’o. In 2013, Notre Dame would like to probably do that again to keep both players fresh and effective. Calabrese is better suited at stopping the run and Fox is better is pass coverage, so the Irish would prefer to have a platoon and utilize each players’ strengths. Given that, junior Jarrett Grace is the front runner to replace Te’o. Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco has raved about Grace’s athleticism and strength during spring practices. We have not seen a lot of Grace during his time at Notre Dame, so I am going to have to take the coaches word on this one. If Grace can’t fill the void, then the Irish could choose to start both Calabrese and Fox during the 2013 season.

5. Battle at Safety

With Zeke Motta graduating and hoping to have a career in the NFL, Notre Dame will need a new starter at safety. With Matthias Farley entrenched at the other safety and Bennett Jackson, KeiVarae Russell, and Lo Wood handling the corner and nickel back positions, the Irish now have plenty of experience in their secondary. In 2012, that was hardly the case, but the secondary should be strength for Notre Dame in 2013.

Sophomore’s Nicky Baratti and Elijah Shumate are the frontrunners to replace Motta at safety. Both Baratti and Shumate saw some playing time in 2012, with Baratti having a big interception at the goal-line versus Michigan. Shumate was used in nickel situations and received more playing time as the season wore on. The Irish are optimistic on Shumate and have talked highly about his play this spring. As a four-star recruit, Shumate is more than capable of playing safety due to his athleticism and experience in nickel situations last year. Given that, I expect Shumate to open the season as the starter.

Incoming freshman and five-star recruit, Max Redfield may also force his way into the discussion when he arrives this summer. The Irish will likely elect to begin the year with Shumate, given his experience and knowledge of the defense, but don’t be surprised if Redfield sees significant playing time in 2013. In fact, by mid-season I predict that Redfield will receive the bulk of playing time at safety. That would force Shumate back to the nickel position, where he thrived last season. Redfield is just too talented of a recruit and the Irish have too much of a need for him to sit on the bench.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07

Saturday, April 6, 2013

Reed Looks Strong Early in 2013

Closer Addison Reed pitched the final inning in Saturday’s 4-3 win over Seattle, and now has three saves in as many chances. Reed has appeared in three games and has yet to surrender a run or a hit. He has walked just one batter and has three strikeouts on the young season. Reed was one of my breakout players prior to the 2013 season, and if he can continue to pitch like he has, then the White Sox bullpen should prove to be very strong. While it has only been three games, Reed’s plan for attacking hitters has been even more impressive than his results.

Here is why I think Reed’s success will continue.

First, Reed appears to using his slider much more often early on this season than it was used last season. With a fastball that usually sits at 93-94 mph, Reed doesn’t possess the sheer velocity required to heavily rely on his fastball. In order to keep hitters off-balance, Reed must use his off-speed pitches more often. This will allow him to “sneak” his fastball by hitters when they have to account for a possibility of a slider being thrown.

Second, Reed’s location and command has been spot on. A big part of Reed’s problems last season resulted in leaving his fastball over the middle of the plate and hanging his slider. After three games, it looks like Reed has focused on eliminating those mistakes. In particular, I have noticed that Reed has been missing high in the strike zone with his fastball and missing low in the zone with his slider. Obviously, the White Sox would like for Reed to be able to throw his pitches for strikes more often than not. However, if he is going to miss with his pitches, it is always better to miss low with off-speed stuff and high with the fastball. Those kinds of location with his fastball and slider will likely lead to weaker contact and generate more swing-and-misses.

Reed still has a long way to go to become a dominant closer, but if he can continue to do what he has done early on this season, then he should be on his way to having a huge year.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07

Don't Panic Over Keppinger's Slow Start

Following Saturday’s 4-3 victory over the Seattle Mariners, third baseman Jeff Keppinger’s batting average sunk to a dismal .048 after a 0-4 day at the plate. In fact, since his third-inning single on Monday, Keppinger is now hitless in his last 19 at-bats. Despite the rough stretch to start the season, it is not time to panic yet. It is important to remember that the season is only five games old and 21 at-bats is a very small sample size. If Keppinger went on this kind of slide in June when he was hitting .300, then it wouldn’t be as noticeable or seem to be a problem. Furthermore, let’s not forget that Keppinger is coming off of a torrid spring where he hit .412 in 51 at-bats. If you combine his spring and regular season stats together, Keppinger would be 22-for-72 and own a .306 average. That batting average is much closer to the .285 career hitter that Keppinger has been, and should indicate what type of hitter he will be moving forward. Since Keppinger is struggling, I would expect manager Robin Ventura to let him sit on the bench tomorrow. With an off-day on Monday, that would allow for Keppinger to take a step back and get his mental approach back. The White Sox will begin a 10-day road trip on Tuesday, and I would be very surprised if Keppinger doesn’t break out of his slump when they return to U.S. Cellular Field in almost two weeks.

Baseball is a long season, so let’s try not to overreact to small sample sizes.

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07

Monday, April 1, 2013

2013 MLB Preview and Predictions

Opening Day is finally here! The White Sox are coming off of a 2012 season that surprised many baseball experts. They finished 85-77, but blew a 3-game lead to the Detroit Tigers in the final weeks of September. In 2013, the White Sox should be able to have similar success considering that their roster hasn’t changed too much. Of course, it will be very tough to overtake Detroit for first place and Kansas City appears to be ready to contend, so the AL Central should be a tough division. Given that, I have the White Sox finishing second with an 87-75 record. Unfortunately, according to my other predictions for the rest of the American League, 87 wins will not be good enough for one of the AL Wild Card spots. However, if the White Sox are in position to contend come the trade deadline, they may make an acquisition that could improve their chances.

Here are the rest of my predictions that are likely to go wrong:

AL East
Toronto Blue Jays 94-68
Tampa Bay Rays 91-71
New York Yankees 87-75
Baltimore Orioles 84-78
Boston Red Sox 76-86

AL Central

Detroit Tigers 93-69
Chicago White Sox 87-75
Kansas City Royals 85-77
Cleveland Indians 74-88
Minnesota Twins 64-98

AL West

Los Angeles Angels 92-70
Texas Rangers 89-73
Oakland Athletics 86-76
Seattle Mariners 73-89
Houston Astros 52-110

NL East

Washington Nationals 97-65
Atlanta Braves 95-67
Philadelphia Phillies 84-78
New York Mets 70-92
Miami Marlins 54-108

NL Central

Cincinnati Reds 96-66
St. Louis Cardinals 86-76
Milwaukee Brewers 81-81
Pittsburgh Pirates 77-85
Chicago Cubs 62-100

NL West

San Francisco Giants 91-71
Los Angeles Dodgers 87-75
Arizona Diamondbacks 83-79
San Diego Padres 72-90
Colorado Rockies 68-94

2013 Playoffs

AL Wildcard: Tampa Bay Rays over Texas Rangers
NL Wildcard: Atlanta Braves over Los Angeles Dodgers
ALDS: Toronto Blue Jays over Tampa Bay Rays
ALDS: Detroit Tigers over Los Angeles Angels
NLDS: Washington Nationals over Atlanta Braves
NLDS: San Francisco Giants over Cincinnati Reds
ALCS: Toronto Blue Jays over Detroit Tigers
NLCS: Washington Nationals over San Francisco Giants
World Series: Washington Nationals over Toronto Blue Jays

2013 Awards and League Leaders

AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Jason Heyward
AL CY Young: Justin Verlander
NL CY Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL ROY: Jackie Bradley Jr.
NL ROY: Jedd Gyorko
AL MOY: John Gibbons
NL MOY: Fredi Gonzalez
AL Comeback: Mariano Rivera
NL Comeback: Tim Lincecum
AL HR King: Jose Bautista
NL HR King: Giancarlo Stanton
AL Batting Champ: Miguel Cabrera
NL Batting Champ: Joey Votto
AL K’s Leader: Yu Darvish
NL K’s Leader: Stephen Strasburg

-Eric Tichelbaut

Follow me on Twitter @etichel07